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Great Lakes Analytics in Sports Conference

Liz Wanless

Ball State University

Bass Model Application to the Sport Industry:

Forecasting Sales Technology Diffusion

Although widespread throughout private sector industry research, the use of new product forecasting analysis is not well-developed for the sport industry context. This research proposes the Bass Model as a method for analyzing the diffusion rates of new sales, service, and customer relationship management technology innovations in professional and intercollegiate sport industries. First published by Frank M. Bass in 1963, the Bass Model is a widely applicable forecasting strategy that estimates the diffusion of innovation and new product adoption life cycles through a differential equation that captures the interplay between innovators (those adopting new technologies) and imitators (those copying the initial adoption). This presentation addresses how and when sport organizations will adopt sales technology innovation with two types of Bass model calibrations: 1) model parameters contrived from product adoption data (e.g., online ticket purchase and renewal capabilities) and 2) model parameters estimated via sport and non-sport analogs.

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