Presidential Nominations: Yesterday and Today

In the early 19th century, presidents were nominated by caucuses of elected officials. Andrew Jackson, most notably, campaigned against the "King Caucus" as the means of making presidential nominations.  In the early 19th century, the caucus was replaced by the more democratic convention system, allowing a wider participation among party members.  Some of the conventions have had many ballots before a presidential candidate could be nominated.  In 1924, the Democrats took 103 ballots to nominate John Davis.  Franklin Roosevelt wasn't selected as the Democratic standard-bearer until the fourth roll call in 1932.  Since the three ballots to nominate Adlai Stevenson in 1952, neither of the major parties have required more than one ballot to select the presidential candidate.  With the introduction of TV coverage, conventions have been transformed into orchestrated events to begin a campaign in contrast to their former decision-making role.  No longer are there "favorite son" candidates that negotiate with candidates for their support.  Spiro Agnew, a relatively unknown governor from Maryland, became vice president because of his favorite son status at the Republican convention.  As conventions have changed, so has the media coverage.  Many networks have dropped their "gavel to gavel coverage," adopting a more selective broadcasting of the events.

Substituting for the convention decision-making have been primaries to select committed delegates to the conventions.  Florida was the first state to allow a primary to select delegates to the convention and in 1904 the Democrats utilized this system.  In 1905, Wisconsin became the first state to require the use of primaries to select delegates.  Although 15 states had adopted the primary system by 1912, Oregon was the first to allow voters to pick preferred presidential candidates.  The road to using primaries made a U-turn.  Many states abandoned primaries because they encouraged fractionalism.  Certainly winning the primaries that existed was not the way to gain a majority of delegates.  Rather primaries were used primarily to demonstrate popular support.  John Kennedy, for example, had to prove that being a Catholic was not an impediment to being elected president.  Thus his victory in West Virginia was crucial.  Since the 1970s, a proliferation of primaries has made them crucial to winning the party's nomination.  So many states have created primaries with committed delegates, that a candidate can obtain a majority of the delegates prior to the convention.

Primaries have also changed.  Regions, wanting to show their importance, have rescheduled their primaries on the same day.  The most famous of these is the Southern primaries conduced on "Super Tuesday," which this year will be March 14.  Because of the importance of primaries, states want to avoid holding their primaries late in the season when the candidate has achieved a delegate majority.  California traditionally held its primary in June.  By having a late primary, candidates that were fairly even in delegate count did battle in a primary that resulted in many delegates being won.  This was the situation with Robert Kennedy in California in 1968.  However, as more states have developed early primaries, other states have moved up their dates.  California did likewise, which will hold its primary on March 7.  Consequently the delegate selection process is "front loaded," giving an advantage to a candidate that begins early, is well organized, and has raised money early.  The so-called "dark horse candidate" may be a thing of the past.  Consequently, Wisconsin’s April primary no longer has the importance that it once did.

Party leaders were disturbed by the trend in primaries.  Therefore the Democratic Party created superdelegates who were party leaders in each state.  The purpose was to ensure that the winning candidate receives support of the party leaders.  Although we have not had a brokered convention because of these delegates, they do give the front runner, especially an incumbent, a significant advantage. 

Other significant changes over the years relate to the campaign.  In the 1800s, candidates typically did not tour the county seeking votes.  No longer could we imagine a "back porch" campaign.  Television, polling, and debating have become central to the strategy of gaining the nomination, joining the traditional meetings with voters, speeches, and hand shaking.  Making its first significant appearance in the last presidential election is an Internet campaign.  Each of the candidates has a well-designed web site that allows visitors to find out about the candidate, hear speeches, and, of course, contribute money.  The effectiveness of the web site to securing votes is unknown, but as in many aspects of a campaign even if its effectiveness is unknown, you have to have it. 

Presidential Election 2000

The election in this year is most interesting because there is no incumbent president seeking reelection but a vice president who is a candidate.  Vice Presidents who have not succeeded to the presidency upon the death of the president have had a difficult time being elected.  In the 19th century we had John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and Martin Van Buren.  But in the 20th century, George Bush, father of one of the leading Republican candidates, is the sole victor.  Nixon, Eisenhower's vice president, was elected president 12 years later, having been narrowly defeated by John Kennedy in 1960.  Often the vice president is viewed as a minor participant in the administration but being tainted with its deficiencies and not given kudos for its achievements.  Vice President Humphrey, for example, had difficulty in distancing himself from the Vietnam War policies. 

There are several candidates running in this year’s election.  However, this analysis will focus on the two leading candidates for each of the parties.  Some of the candidates have already dropped out by the time of this writing (before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary), e.g. Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander, and Daniel Quayle.  The polls however suggest that one of the two leading candidates for each party will receive the nomination.  We have to be careful though for we never had a President Muskie or a President Romney, two leading candidates for the Democratic and Republican nomination in the 60s and 70s.

In the press much time has been spent focusing on the potential problems of the candidates.  For George W. Bush, one has worried whether he is intellectually up for the job and whether his inexperience in foreign affairs is a concern.  John McCain, his major opponent, has been tainted with a bad temper and rumors of psychological problems stemming from his imprisonment during Vietnam.  McCain has released his medical records to show he doesn’t have a problem.  Bill Bradley for the Democrats also has a medical issue—that of an atrial fibrillation—that physicians say is a minor problem but one that requires medication and has resulted in occasional hospitalization.  Vice President Al Gore is accused of rhetoric excesses—such as "I invented the Internet"—and questionable fund raising practices in the 1996 presidential election.  This presentation focuses on a summary of the candidates’ issue positions in selected policy areas.  Some of the candidates have more detailed issue positions.

The Issues

Health Care

Bradley

• Supports the patients' bill of rights
• Nearly universal health care with a combination of private insurance or plans under the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP).  Children will be fully subsidized if family income is under $32,800 and partially subsidized up to an income of $49,200.  Adults will receive a subsidy up to an income of $32,800.
• Medicare will include an optional prescription drug coverage with a $500 deductible, $25 monthly premium, and 25 percent co-pay.

Gore

• Supports the patients bill of rights
• Set aside 25% of the budget surplus to ensure Medicare solvency
• Extend the Clinton administration's coverage of children to 250% (now 200%) of the poverty line ($41,000 for a family of four) and a buy in after that
• Extend poor children health benefits to their parents (similar to Wisconsin’s Badger Care)
• Support the Clinton administration proposal allowing those 55-65 years old to buy into Medicare
• Tax credit for small businesses to buy health insurance
• Long term care (e.g. nursing homes) tax credit
• Prescription drug coverage for Medicare recipients

Bush

• Prescription drug option in Medicare
• Supports expanding Medical savings accounts
• Supports strengthening tax incentives for small businesses to provide health insurance for employees
• Supports patient protections similar to those in Texas, but against the federal government having protections superseding those of the states

McCain

• Tax incentives for businesses to purchase health insurance
• Allow businesses to pool resources to lower health insurance costs
• Tort reforms to reduce malpractice cases to lower costs
• Make sure that those eligible for government programs are enrolled
• Supports right to sue HMOs if all other options are exhausted
• Prescription drug benefit but with federal money matching state money, not through Medicare

Bradley

• Programs for readiness skills for those younger than five
• College scholarships for high school students willing to teach in high need districts
• Improve technology at community colleges
• Expand and improve after school care

Gore

• Additional federal funding for the schools  ($115 million more)
• Tax free bonds for school construction and renovation
• Smaller class sizes
• Favors choice among public schools but against private choice program
• Tougher testing of teachers for licensing
• Rewarding good teachers

Bush

• States that improve schools would get up to $500 million extra
• Testing in grades 3-8 each year based upon state devised test
• Supports private choice program and charter schools
• Supports tax free earnings in educational savings accounts
• Reform head start program and move it from HHS to the Dept. of Education

McCain

• Supports tax free educational savings accounts
• Supports alternative licensing of teachers to deal with shortages—“Troops to Teachers” program
• Supports Clinton’s tax credits for tuition expenditure and HOPE scholarship
• Supports private choice programs

Bradley

• Use part of the surplus to shore up social security
• “Skeptical” of allowing workers to use a portion of their social security to invest privately 
• Save money on Medicare through efficiencies

Gore

• Portion of the surplus to be used for social security (Clinton administration has proposed using the savings from decreased borrowing costs with the surplus that would be dedicated to social security)
• Against allowing individuals to invest a portion of their payroll tax in private investment accounts

Bush

• Allow individuals to have personal retirement accounts to invest a portion of their social security payroll tax
• Opposes government investment in stocks and bonds
• “Lock box” provision—dedication of all social security money for social security

McCain

• Would allow private investment accounts for a portion of an individual's payroll tax
• Lock box provision allowing social security surpluses to be used only for social security
• Use 62% of the budget surplus to shore up social security
• Eliminate social security reduction for earnings of 65 to 70 year old workers 

Bradley

• Debt reduction is a priority over tax cuts
• Expanded earned income tax credit

Gore

• Supports middle class tax cuts for education and retirement
• Expanded earned income tax credit

Bush

• Reduce tax rates to three rates with top rate being 33%.  (Currently very high earners pay 39.6% as top bracket)
• Double child credit to $1,000 per child and raise income cutoff to qualify to $200,000
• Reinstate deduction allowing lower earning spouse to deduct 10% of earnings
• Phase out inheritance tax and gift tax
• Allow taxpayers who are not allowed to itemize deductions to itemize charitable contributions

McCain

• Expand those covered by the 15% tax bracket, making the tax rate flatter
• Double child credit to $1,000
• Allow family security savings account, permitting tax deferral of up to $6,000 per year
• Exempt military from income tax when serving overseas
• Expand an individual’s ability to set up medical savings accounts, and deductions for elderly to buy long term care insurance

Bradley

• Supports public funding
• Only small individual contributions
• Prohibit soft money
• Require free TV broadcast time
• Curb issue ads
• Electronic filing by candidates

Gore

• Ban soft money
• Free and discounted TV broadcast time
• Limitations on individual and PAC contributions (he doesn’t accept PAC contributions)
• Improved disclosure of contributions

Bush

• Ban soft money from labor unions and corporations
• Raise individual contribution limits
• Union members have right to decide where their union money goes
• Supports improved disclosure by candidates

McCain

• Supports package of reforms known as the McCain-Feingold bill
• Bans soft money to parties

Democratic Candidates:

Al Gore   www.gore2000.org
Bill Bradley  www.billbradley.com

Gary Bauer  www.bauer2k.com
George W. Bush  www.georgewbush.com
Steve Forbes  www.forbes2000.com
Orrin Hatch  www.orrinhatch.org
Alan Keys  www.keyes2000.com
John McCain  www.mccain2000.com

Pat Buchanan www.gopatgo2000.org/