Table 1 gives the data on the national economy. From fourth quarter 1989 to fourth quarter 1990 real GNP grew by a scant 0.3 percent. During fourth quarter 1990 GNP actually declined by 2.1 percent, thus leaving little doubt that the much discussed recession has finally arrived. Another measure of economic activity is the industrial production index, measuring the output of the nation's factories. Here again a contraction in activity is apparent. Production fell by 1.4 percent from last year clearly indicating an overall weakness at the national level. Interest rates, as proxied by the three month treasury bill rate, continued to trend downward, a manifestation of falling aggregate demand. Over the twelve month period from fourth quarter to fourth quarter inflation ran at about 6.1 percent. However, for the calendar year of 1990 the rate was a more modest 4.1 percent. 

     Unemployment rates in the region were generally lower than last year. Central Wisconsin's unemployment figures are below those of the state and nation. Further, the 4.2 percent mark is, from a historic perspective, quite low. 

     The employment picture in the counties and region can be characterized as being somewhat softer than in earlier periods. The region lost approximately 800 jobs from last year, a decline of 0.6 percent. The only county adding to its payrolls in fourth quarter 1990 was Marathon. A similar situation exists nationally where employment totals have dropped for many areas of the country. 

     Central Wisconsin employment classified by industrial sector showed an increase of 2,300 positions from a year ago for a gain of nearly 2.0 percent. Service sector employment and construction were the leaders in job growth for the three county region. Manufacturing employment remained unchanged from a year ago at 29.7 thousand, while trade and government employment contracted slightly. Given the circumstances nationally, the nonfarm portion of our economy turned in a decent performance over the past twelve months. 

     Employment in key regional industrial classifications showed some improvement by posting an increase of 1.1 percent (300 positions). Here we see that the paper products industry continues to add at a steady rate. There are now 26.5 thousand people employed in these key sector industries, which serve as the basis for the majority of other employment in our region. However, according to regional business executives the situation on the national level has deteriorated. These same executives were also of the opinion that national conditions can be expected to continue to decline in the months ahead while local conditions remain about the same. The composite readings for the Business Confidence Index are the lowest ever recorded at the CWERB. 

     The Marshfield area and Wood County turned in a surprisingly good performance during fourth quarter 1990 given the context of a national recession. Most statistics indicated little or no change in the local economy. Furthermore, some data even indicate that the economy was doing better than just holding its own. Examples of these variables include the unemployment rate and residential construction activity. Thus, so far at least, the state and region have avoided the worst aspects of the national recession which are hitting other parts of the country so hard. 

     The national economy is in recession and with matters in the Middle East so uncertain, forecasters are not confident about the nature of the recession. The opinions range from predictions of a short and shallow recession to those anticipating a long and deep contraction. This uncertainty is also reflected in the various consumer confidence surveys.