Fourth quarter 1988 was another in a long series of quarters in which the economy continued to expand. The unemployment rate fell to a level not seen since the 1970s and total employment increased by nearly 700 positions. Service and government employment paced the expansion and retailers felt that sales were somewhat better than a year ago. More pleasant news comes from bank loan activity. However, there were some disappointing developments. Some local sectors such as manufacturing and trade experienced no growth or even contracted from last year's levels. Furthermore, conflicting signals came from the data on public assistance claims which were lower than the previous year and unemployment claims which were higher.

     The economic success of the local area is highly dependent on the overall national trend. But local variables are also very important. Regional business leaders indicate that their industries are healthy and local labor demand remains very strong. In addition, residential construction activity continued the trend of robust growth.

     As Table 7 shows, manufacturing employment was unchanged from last year, but nonetheless 4700 represents an all time high for Portage County. Service and government employment grew by 190 and 400 respectively. In contrast trade employment dipped down to the fourth quarter 1986 level and construction employment was slightly lower (20 positions) than a year ago. In summary, nonagricultural employment increased by a modest 1.5 percent from December 1987. As previously noted, the prevalence of commuting in Central Wisconsin should be taken into consideration when interpreting local economic trends.

      Table 8 presents the CWERB's retailer confidence survey. In the opinion of local merchants, store sales were moderately better than last year, whereas store traffic was unchanged. The CWERB conducted the polling in early December. At the national level a late surge in Christmas buying turned the once sluggish looking retail picture into a healthy one. Therefore, the local results may be somewhat understated. The outlook for the retail segment is one of cautious optimism. However, there was a noticeable drop in sentiment about future sales.

     Local payrolls should grow in the coming months according to the help wanted advertising index in Table 9. Analysis of 1988 figures shows two jobs being advertised for each one job in the base year of 1980. From just one year ago there has been a~1 percent increase in help wanted advertising. This will eventually translate into additional employment for local residents. Finally, the value for December 1988 represents a record level of advertising for that time of year.

     Table 10 and Table 11 send mixed signals about 4th quarter family financial distress. Public assistance claims for Portage county are significantly lower for both new applications and total caseload. This is a positive development for the area. In contrast to this good news, the number of new unemployment claims and total claims are up sharply from a year ago. Undoubtedly, a reduction in Portage County trade employment from a year ago played a role in boosting these figures.

     Residential construction is a leading indication of overall economic activity. Table 12 shows that the local building boom has not stalled even though interest rates have been trending upward. The results for 4th quarter 1988 are even more impressive when one considers that 1987 was a very good year for local builders. Nearly all measures on residential construction were above last year's amounts. This will provide additional impetus for the local economy.

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     Nonresidential construction for the greater Stevens Point area measures business expansions and alterations to existing structures. Table 13 displays the results for 4th quarter. Activity levels fell into the established historical ranges. However, the 55 business alteration permits represent a new high for such activity during 4th quarter. As stated in previous reports the singular nature and large size of business construction projects creates volatility in these totals.

     Financial statistics can give valuable insight into the condition and direction of an economy. Table 14 gives these statistics for Portage county. Bank deposits, a measure of local liquidity, increased by $7.2 million or 2.6 percent. This should imply greater purchasing power for future quarters. Another statistic to consider is the amount of lending taking place locally. The table shows that borrowing was up by a very robust $22.5 million or 13.1 percent. These figures on lending suggest that economic activity was significantly higher than 4th quarter 1987.