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The ongoing economic
expansion in Central Wisconsin continued during
fourth quarter 1988. In the past several years economic growth in the region has
been particularly strong. Unemployment rates are at such low levels that wage
pressure in certain job categories may become more pronounced. Employment
numbers for this time of year are at record levels. Moreover, 3,800 jobs were
created in the past twelve months. However, several regional key industries
lagged behind expectations. This is of concern because these activities are
fundamental to the region's long-run well-being. The sentiment of the business
community on matters of national and local economic conditions remains virtually
unchanged from a quarter ago. This can be interpreted to mean that no dramatic
changes, either positive or negative, are foreseen in the months ahead.
Table 2 shows the unemployment rates for the counties, the region, the state,
and the nation. The dramatic downward trend in unemployment rates continued
unabated in the fourth quarter. For all the geographic areas listed record lows
were recorded. Not since the early 1970s have unemployment rates been so low.
Portage,
Marathon, and Wood counties had very similar
conditions. Collectively, as Central Wisconsin,
the counties registered 4.4 percent. The seasonal nature of this area's
employment explains why the state and nation usually tend to have lower
unemployment rates at this time of year.
Another measure of economic success is employment growth. Table 3 displays the
results for the year. Marathon and Wood counties had nearly identical percentage
changes in employment, 3.4 percent and 3.3 percent. Portage County grew at a slightly more modest 2.3
percent. Due to the amount of commuting between the Central
Wisconsin counties, it is important to consider regional employment
changes. This measure is more reflective of overall regional well-being. During
the past year 3,800 jobs were added in Central Wisconsin,
a healthy increase of 3.1 percent. The state and nation also turned in
respectable levels of growth.
Table 4 gives a breakdown of employment change by major industrial sector. Only
trade sector employment was lower than a year ago by 0.7 percent. All other
categories posted solid gains. For these sectors the totals represent all time
highs for fourth quarter. Services, manufacturing, and government employment led
the surge. Overall 2,500 employees were added to regional payrolls for a 2.3
percent gain.
Figures in Table 5 provide insight into employment in the key exporting
industries of the region. The paper products industry expanded by 200 positions
from a year ago. Employment in this industry, at 9400, is at the highest level
ever for December. Likewise food processing added 200 positions or 5 percent.
However, the finance, insurance, and real estate sector saw no growth, as
employment remained at 7,900 for the region. Lumber and wood products employment
fell by 700 from a year ago. But last year's relatively high total may have been
an aberration as there was an unexplained increase in employment of 1000 from
fourth quarter 1986 to fourth quarter 1987. Thus, the negative results in fourth
quarter 1988 may be the result of a reporting error in fourth quarter 1987.
The CWERB conducts a survey of regional business leaders to gain insight into
local economic conditions. The results of the survey are presented in
Table 6.
This group felt that the national economy had improved. At the regional level
responses were in the neutral range. In the near future executives indicated
that they expected economic conditions to remain about the same. However, they
were slightly more optimistic about the prospects in their own industries.
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