The Wausau-Marathon County area demonstrated improved economic performance during the fourth quarter 1986. This growth, forecasted in the third quarter, can be attributed to the presence of a number of favorable variables. It is likely that this modest trend will continue into the first quarter of 1987. Evidence that the local economy has strengthened is as follows. The unemployment rate has decreased from last year. Total nonfarm employment has expanded by a moderate amount. The views of retailers remain in the "somewhat optimistic" range. The help wanted advertising index predicts some future gains in employment and data concerning unemployment claims are very encouraging. Moreover, healthy residential construction activity in the fourth quarter 1986 will cause a further expansion in the local economy. Lastly, financial statistics demonstrate and support the assertion that the local economy was in an expansive mode during the quarter.

     Marathon County's nonfarm employment is displayed in Table 7. Manufacturing and trade posted the largest percentage gains of the past twelve months. In terms of the number of jobs created, manufaturing saw an increase of 300 and trade 400. Further, service sector employment rose by 200 from last year. Only the construction and government sectors experienced falling employment. In the case of construction, the number of workers was down by 100. In government, the contraction amounted to 300. Overall, employment in the nonfarm sectors grew by 500. This represents a slight increase of 1.8%. Thus, employment expansion continues to take place in Marathon County as forecasted by the CWERB.

     The retailer confidence index in Table 8 exhibits the viewpoint of local merchants with regard to existing and expected business conditions. Reflecting the general economic pattern of the region, state, and nation, the opinions indicate that "somewhat better" economic conditions exist. Approximately the same level of confidence is expressed for activity six months from now. When contrasted with September's results, no general pattern is evident. Once again this supports the position that the economy will continue to expand, but at a less than spectacular rate.

     To measure the strength of labor demand in the Wausau area, the CWERB utilizes a help wanted index (Table 9). The index for December shows a 40-point increase from fourth quarter 1985. Almost twice as many jobs were advertised in December 1986 as in the base quarter of December 1980. This leading economic indicator of future activity signals that job growth will continue in the near term. Thus, the index's   improvement reinforces the results of third quarter 1986.     

     The information contained in Table 10 will be of more use in first quarter 1987. The method of compiling public assistance claims was changed in first quarter 1986 from a city to county-wide basis. Therefore, the numbers reported for fourth quarter 1986 may overstate the amount of family distress.

     Table 11 supports the modest improvement forecasted in third quarter 1986. Furthermore, the unemployment claims figures for the Wausau area support the statement made earlier concerning the overstatement of public assistance claims. Initial unemployment claims declined by 649 from last year. Total claims fell by 2759 or ­10.3%. These measures are even more impressive when one realizes that the average civilian labor force of fourth quarter 1986 was larger than that of fourth quarter 1985, by an average of 3866 per month.

     The residential construction data of Table 12 indicates that the new housing and alteration permits have responded favorably to improved financing conditions. All categories experienced impressive growth when compared to fourth quarter 1985. This type of activity is a leading economic indicator. As the ripple effect caused by construction flows throughout the local economy, prospects for further improvement in employment and income levels in the county seem favorable.

     Nonresidential construction, as presented in Table 13, was down from last year in the estimated value of new structures, number of business alteration permits, and estimated value of business alterations categories. Only the number of permits registered showed an increase from fourth quarter 1985. It should be noted that nonresidential construction figures can be dominated by a single project, unlike residential construction which is spread out over a relatively larger base. This may result in a wide variation in the estimated value of projects from one period to the next while the number of permits remains essentially unchanged.

     Financial statistics for Wausau are listed in Table 14. Bank deposits expanded at a very healthy 21.1% from fourth quarter 1985. Bank loans also showed strength by posting over a 21 % increase. The loan activity is even greater than reported. Specifically, the loan figure does not include data concerning the reselling of loans in the after market. Moreover, lending activity supports the contention that fourth quarter 1986 was a strong period for the residential housing market.