Overall, fourth quarter 1986 economic performance for the Marshfield-Wood County area was strong. The expansion in activity, forecasted by the CWERB in third quarter, was due to a number of favorable indicators. The following data substantiate the claim of robust activity in the fourth quarter. The Wood County area saw a marked improvement in the unemployment rate and total employment increased by 2100 positions or 6.6070 over last year. Positive performance was recorded for all nonfarm industrial sectors. The Marshfield employment index rose by an impressive 7.5% from a year ago. Retailers indicated that business had increased noticeably compared to last year. Public assistance and unemployment claims were lower. Finally, financial statistics and residential construction were indicative of an expanding local economy.

     Wood County employment by sector is presented in Table 7. For the third consecutive quarter, manufacturing payrolls have expanded. Specifically an increase of 300 jobs was recorded in the fourth quarter. Service employment in Wood County has also risen during the past four quarters. A 3.0% change was registered in fourth quarter 1986. More good news came from the trade sector. After a weak first half of the year, the last two quarters have been characterized by robust growth. An increase of 1100 positions or a 14.9% growth rate was recorded in fourth quarter 1986. Moreover, construction and government employment contributed to the overall strong performance in the local job market. In summary, nonfarm employment expanded at a very healthy pace of 6.5% or 2070 jobs since last year. Thus, the favorable variables mentioned in third quarter 1986 appear to have had a positive impact on the local level.

     To approximate the share of county-wide employment that is attributable to Marshfield, an employment index is used. The index, which uses 1980 Census data, shows that Marshfield has experienced an improvement in employment of approximately 7.5% from fourth quarter 1985. This is the second quarter that substantial improvement has taken place.

    Table 8 presents retailer confidence levels for Marshfield. When asked about total sales and store traffic compared to the previous year, the retailers responded favorably. The index levels for these questions can be interpreted as indicating "somewhat improved" conditions during the past quarter. Less optimisim is recorded for the questions pertaining to expected sales and store traffic three months from. !low. However, the response levels are still mildly optimistic even though they are below last quarter's results.

     The help wanted index is given in Table 9. The index is used to forecast job growth. Second and third quarter index levels were substantially above those of last year. For fourth quarter 1986 the index stands at approximately the same level as last year. The index conveys that 39% more jobs were advertised in December 1986 than in December of the base year 1980. Local payrolls should expand in first quarter 1987 but not at the rate experienced in third or fourth quarters 1986.

      Public assistance claims in Marshfield are displayed in Table 10. This statistic measures local family distress. The results indicate that matters are improved over last year. As can be seen, caseloads were down by 4.9%. Moreover, initial applications were down by 8%. This item substantiates the improvement forecasted for fourth quarter in the last Economic Indicators Report.

      More encouraging information is presented in Table 11. Continuing a trend started earlier this year, unemployment claims are significantly down from last year. New claims have shrunk by 6.6070 and total claims are down by 13.4070. This evidence complements the data presented earlier concerning employment increases. For the five county area this means that a real and substantial improvement has taken place from a year ago.

     Residential construction in the Marshfield area has responded to lower interest rates in fourth quarter 1986 (Table 12). Residential permits, estimated value of new homes, and number of housing units are improved over the totals of fourth quarter of 1985. This bodes well for the local economy as construction activity is a leading indicator of future income and employment changes. It should be noted that alteration permits and associated values are down from last year. However, the results for third quarter were very strong. This may indicate that activity usually taking place in fourth quarter occurred one quarter earlier.

     Nonresidential construction slowed during fourth quarter when contrasted with last year (Table 13). This is the second consecutive quarter that nonresidential has not kept pace with last year, i.e. 1985. Nonresidential construction is less interest rate sensitive than residential construction. but since nonresidential construction projects tend to be large singular events, it is not surprising that substantial changes appear in this category from quarter to quarter.

     Financial statistics for the greater Marshfield area are listed in Table 14. Bank deposits are up by 8.3070 or approximately $16 million. Moreover, bank loans have increased by 4.0070 or $4.6 million over the level attained last year. These statistics indicate that the local economy was able to save more than last year. The increase in bank loans reflects the growth in the local economy. This is consistent with data presented earlier and with activity in the local housing market.

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