Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Central Wisconsin
3rd Quarter 1998
 

Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Fig 5A Fig 5B Table 6

 
     Central Wisconsin's economic statistics for 3rd Quarter 1998 show that we are experiencing very low unemployment rates and modest amounts of employment growth. This situation is characteristic of an economy that has been growing for a very long period of time. Perhaps the most interesting finding this quarter is the fall in the level of confidence expressed by our panel of regional business executives.

     Unemployment rates in the region and state are extremely low (Table 2). The respective rates for Marathon, Portage, and Wood counties are 2.5, 2.6, and 3.0 percent. These marks are at or near record lows. Central Wisconsin's labor force weighted unemployment rate is just 2.7 percent. This matches the 2.7 rate for the state as a whole. Thus, all of the local and state rates are significantly lower than the 4.4 percent U.S. unemployment mark.

     Employment growth was uneven throughout the three county region (Table 3). Portage experienced a reported decline of 2.6 percent in its payrolls, whereas Marathon and Wood moved forward with gains of 0.4 and 1.3 percent respectively. With an ever tightening labor market employment growth is becoming increasingly more difficult to achieve. This is also true for Wisconsin and the nation. Here employment increased by 1.4 and 1.5 percent respectively.

     Industrial sector payrolls expanded, albeit at a modest pace in Central Wisconsin.  For the reason alluded to above, it will be very difficult to generate huge employment gains in the future. Manufacturing and services grew by 0.6 and 1.5 percent (Table 4). Trade and construction payrolls also expanded, growing by 1.8 and 3.1 percent Government payrolls are estimated to have fallen by 1.7 percent. Overall, the industrial sector categories grew by 1.0 percent or about 1,400 jobs since last year.

     Sales tax data for Portage county shows a gain of 3.5 percent took place
(Table 5). This indicator is an excellent barometer of the overall level of economic activity in an area. Marathon also experienced a nice gain in retail activity. Sales tax collections in Marathon county grew by 3.8 percent in the year over comparison. Thus, the economies in these counties continue to develop and expand.

     Relating to the Marshfield version of the report, graphs 5A and 5B depict the movements in manufacturing, services, trade, construction, and government employment over the past few years.  The reader will quickly gain an appreciation for the relative importance of the sectors and how they have taken on different growth paths.  Moreover, these figures dramatically portray the changing nature of our regional economy and how our people earn their livelihoods. 

     Business executives in the region believe that recent economic changes have been decidedly negative in nature (Table 6). Clearly, the financial problems in Asia and other developing areas of the world have area executives concerned. More pessimism than what has even been recorded by the CWERB was expressed by this group concerning the future. This group expects economic conditions at the national, local, and industry levels to deteriorate over the next quarter and into next year.

 
TABLE 2:
UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Unemployment Rate
September 1997
Unemployment Rate
September 1998
Percent
Change
Portage
2.8%
2.6%
-7.1
Marathon
2.6%
2.5%
-3.8
Wood
2.9%
3.0%
+3.4
Central Wisconsin
2.7%
2.7%
0
Wisconsin
3.1%
2.7%
-12.9
United States
4.7%
4.4%
-6.4
TABLE 3:
EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Total Employment
September 1997
(Thousands)
Total Employment
September 1998
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage
38.1
37.1
-2.6
Marathon
70.8
71.1
+0.4
Wood
38.2
38.7
+1.3
Central Wisconsin
147.1
146.9
-0.1
Wisconsin
2,843.4
2,883.2
+1.4
United States
129,972
131,864
+1.5
TABLE 4:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR
 
Employment
September 1997 (Thousands)
Employment
September 1998 (Thousands)
Percent Change
Manufacturing
36.1
36.3
+0.6
Durable goods
18.5
19.1
+3.2
Nondurable
goods
17.6
17.3
-1.7
Services
47.9
48.6
+1.5
Trade
33.2
33.8
+1.8
Construction
6.4
6.6
+3.1
Government
17.7
17.4
-1.7
TABLE 5:
COUNTY SALES TAX DISTRIBUTION
 
1997 Sales Tax
Third Quarter
(Thousands)
1998 Sales Tax
Third Quarter
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage County
$979.4
$1,014.0
+3.5
Marathon County
$2,002.3
$2,077.8
+3.8
FIGURE 5A:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR--
MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND TRADE

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FIGURE 5B:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR--
CONSTRUCTION AND GOVERNMENT

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TABLE 6:
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Index Value
June 1998
September 1998
Recent Change in
National Economic Conditions
51
34
Recent Change in
Local Economic Conditions
53
46
Expected Change in
National Economic Conditions
41
38
Expected Change in
Local Economic Conditions
49
42
Expected Change in
Industry Conditions
51
38
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481