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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Stevens Point Area
3rd Quarter 1997

 
Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14


     The local economy continues to display considerable strength. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate stands at a very low 2.9 percent for 3rd Quarter, and industrial sector employment growth was respectable for most of the reported categories. Other indicators in the report suggest that while the local economy is not expanding at a rapid uncontrolled pace, it is nonetheless performing at a decent level. 

     The employment situation in Portage county remains healthy (Table 7). Industrial sector employment results show every sector expanding beyond last years totals except for the slight decline in government employment. Services, as is typical, lead the expansion growing by 300 positions. Area manufacturing and trade firms each added 200 persons to their operations. Construction, meanwhile, added approximately 100 jobs. Overall, we see these sectors growing by a respectable 2.2 percent from a year ago. Thus, once again it can be said that our local economy is in reasonably good shape. 

     The CWERB's panel of local merchants says that store traffic and sales were ahead of last year's totals during 3rd Quarter (Table 8).  As a matter of record their sentiments have been trending upwards since 3rd Quarter 1996. With regard to their forecast of future activity this group believes matters will improve in the months ahead. Here the trend in sentiment has been decidedly more optimistic since about 1st Quarter 1996. Thus, all measures of retailer confidence indicate the economy is performing well. 

     Another indicator of local economic conditions is help wanted advertising
(Table 9)
.  Even though the index fell from 314 to 277, or 11.8 percent, the index remains at an elevated level. In other words there are 2.8 jobs being advertised for each one in the base year. For a historic perspective of the situation, the index stood around 180 in early 1993. Thus, much improvement has taken place in the job market for local residents. 

     An additional dimension of economic performance is the rate of change in public assistance claim data (Table 10).  However, the threat of the state of Wisconsin's W2 plan has caused many people to leave the ranks of the unemployed. Thus, the decline in total caseload by 10 percent from last year will reflect this change along with that associated with economic growth. Interesting though is that new claims have increased slightly from 78 to 89 on a monthly average basis. 

     Unemployment claims for Portage county are virtually unchanged from the already low levels of last year (Table 11). New claims on a weekly average basis rose from 47 to 52 and total claims for 3rd Quarter fell from 143 to 142. Thus, little change is evident this period. However, one might expect that any normally functioning economy will have some unemployment that is associated with frictional and structural change. 

     Residential construction is a method used to gauge the local economy
(Table 12). Permits issued for new construction rose from 43 to 46. However, the associated value of this activity contracted from $5.2 million to $3.9 million. The number of housing units expanded from 50 to 54 over the year. In the residential alteration arena, residential permits issued declined from 390 to 368 and likewise their value fell from $1.6 million to $1.5 million.

     Nonresidential construction, as usual, is presented without percentage changes due to the volatility of this kind of activity (Table 13).  The number of permits issued reached 15 in 3rd Quarter and this construction is estimated to have a value of $3.5 million.  The number of business alteration permits was 36 and the value of this activity was $593 thousand.  In sum, nonresidential construction was somewhat off the pace of prior periods.

     Results of our sample of financial institutions show that bank deposits have risen by $7.0 million or by 2.5 percent from a year ago (Table 14).  A more impressive change was the expansion of bank loans which grew by $28.0 million or by 9.6 percent from a year ago.  This lending implies an increase in the future purchases of goods and services by consumers and businesses, which translates into jobs and income for the suppliers of these things. 

 
TABLE 7:
PORTAGE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR
 
Employment
September 1996
(Thousands)
Employment
September 1997
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Manufacturing
6.8
7.0
+2.9
Services
10.8
11.1
+2.8
Trade
7.3
7.5
+2.7
Construction
1.0
1.1
+10.0
Government
5.9
5.8
-1.7
 
TABLE 8:
RETAILER CONFIDENCE IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA
                                        
Index Value
June 1997
September 1997
Total Sales Compared
to Previous Year
66
68
Store Traffic Compared
to Previous Year
64
63
Expected Sales Three
Months From Now
71
66
Expected Store Traffic
Three Months From Now
68
63
100 = Substantially Better
50 = Same
0 = Substantially Worse
 
TABLE 9:
HELP WANTED ADVERTISING IN PORTAGE COUNTY
                                
Index Value
1996
1997
Stevens Point
(September)
(1980 = 100)
314
277
U.S.
(August)
(1987 = 100)
82
84
 
TABLE 10:
PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1996
Third Quarter
(Monthly Avg.)
1997
Third Quarter
(Monthly Avg.)
Percent Change
New Applications
78
89
+14.1
Total Caseload
1,957
1,761
-10.0
 
TABLE 11:
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1996
Third Quarter
(Weekly Avg.)
1997
Third Quarter
(Weekly Avg.)
Percent Change
New Claims
47
52
+10.6
Total Claims
143
142
-0.7
 
TABLE 12:
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA*
 
1996
Third Quarter
1997
Third Quarter
Percent Change
Residential Permits Issued
43
46
+7.0
Estimated Value of
New Homes
$5,219.0
(thousands)
$3,944.5
(thousands)
-24.4
Number of Housing Units
50
54
+8.0
Residential Alteration
Permits Issued
390
368
-5.6
Estimated Value
of Alterations
$1,635.2
(thousands)
$1,519.1
(thousands)
-7.1
*Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover.
 
TABLE 13:
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA*
 
1996
Third Quarter
1997
Third Quarter
Number of Permits Issued
8
15
Estimated Value of 
New Structures
$4,666.4
(thousands)
$3,485.2
(thousands)
Number of Business Alteration Permits
51
36
Estimated Value 
of Business Alterations
$10,043.0
(thousands)
$593.2
(thousands)
*Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover.
 
TABLE 14:
FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1996
Third Quarter
(Millions)
1997
Third Quarter
(Millions)
Percent Change
Bank Deposits
$280.1
$297.1
+2.5
Bank Loans
$292.6
$320.6
+9.6
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481