Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Central Wisconsin
3rd Quarter 1997
 

Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Fig 5A Fig 5B Table 6

 

     Since the mid 1980's our region, like the state, has experienced a very long period of almost uninterrupted growth and development. This quarter's results indicate the continuation of this trend. All indicators were positive about our economic situation and signal that our region is partaking in the national expansion. Further, unless some unforeseen shock hits the economy the trend is most likely to continue into the year ahead.

     Unemployment rates remain at very low levels in all of our reporting areas
(Table 2). The rates for Portage and Wood stood at just 2.9 percent. Marathon's unemployment rate was an even lower 2.7 percent. Likewise, the state and nation once again registered fine performances. The state unemployment rate was a minuscule 3.1 percent while the national mark was a very respectable 4.7 percent. In general, rates were slightly higher this year than last, but still remain at incredibly low levels. 

     Total employment growth in the region was slow (Table 3). As mentioned in previous reports tight labor markets currently exist after many years of robust growth. This constraint will likely prevent large employment gains from taking place in the foreseeable future. Most forecasters indicate that Wisconsin will now, after many years of exceeding the national job growth rate, begin to trail the U.S. in job generation. In other words, the rest of the country will catch up to Wisconsin in terms of job creation. 

     Better news about the Central Wisconsin employment situation comes from the industrial sectors listed in Table 4. Manufacturing, services, and trade grew by 2.9, 2.4, and 5.3 percent respectively. However, our construction and government payrolls fell behind last years levels, declining by 3.4 and 2.2 percent respectively. In sum, all these sectors grew at a combined rate of approximately 2.3 percent, or a gain of approximately 3,200 jobs. 

     Sales tax distributions are another useful indicator of economic activity in a region (Table 5). In Portage county the amount of tax increased from $914.1 thousand to $979.4 thousand or by 7.1 percent. The activity in Marathon county resulted in a rise from $1.9 million to $2.0 million in collections over the course of the year. Thus, both counties experienced a substantial dollar change in purchasing activity. There are no data available for Wood county because it does not have a county sales tax.

     Our CWERB panel of regional business executives believes that national and local economic conditions have not changed all that much over the past twelve months (Table 6). Given the overall good performance of the national and local economies it becomes difficult to imagine that matters would have dramatically improved. When queried about the national, local, and industry conditions likely to prevail in the next quarter they indicated that economic matters would follow the current course. In other words, no major changes are foreseen

 
TABLE 2:
UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Unemployment Rate
September 1996
Unemployment Rate
September 1997
Percent
Change
Portage
2.6%
2.9%
+11.5
Marathon
2.6%
2.7%
+3.8
Wood
2.5%
2.9%
+16.0
Central Wisconsin
2.6%
2.8%
+7.7
Wisconsin
2.8%
3.1%
+10.7
United States
5.0%
4.7%
-6.0
TABLE 3:
EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Total Employment
September 1996
(Thousands)
Total Employment
September 1997
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage
36.9
37.1

+0.5

Marathon
69.2
69.5
+0.4
Wood
39.1
39.1

0

Central Wisconsin
145.2
145.7
+0.3
Wisconsin
2,844.3
2,850.4
+0.2
United States
127,529
129,972
+1.9
TABLE 4:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR
 
Employment
September 1996 (Thousands)
Employment
September 1997 (Thousands)
Percent Change
Manufacturing
34.9
35.9
+2.9
Durable goods
17.4
17.9
+2.9
Nondurable
goods
17.5
17.9
+2.3
Services
46.5
47.6
+2.4
Trade
31.8
33.5
+5.3
Construction
5.9
5.7
-3.4
Government
17.8
17.4
-2.2
TABLE 5:
COUNTY SALES TAX DISTRIBUTION
 
1996 Sales Tax
Third Quarter
(Thousands)
1997 Sales Tax
Third Quarter
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage County
$914.1
$979.4
+7.1
Marathon County
$1,926.2
$2,002.3
+4.0
FIGURE 5A:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR--
MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND TRADE

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FIGURE 5B:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR--
CONSTRUCTION AND GOVERNMENT

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TABLE 6:
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Index Value
June 1996
September 1997
Recent Change in
National Economic Conditions
63
52
Recent Change in
Local Economic Conditions
61
52
Expected Change in
National Economic Conditions
53
50
Expected Change in
Local Economic Conditions
50
51
Expected Change in
Industry Conditions
58
52
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481