Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
Picture (42x43, 1017 bytes)
Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

National and Regional Outlook
3rd Quarter 1994

 Table 1

     The national economy is forecasted to continue its expansion, but at a more modest rate than in past quarters. This view represents the consensus of most forecasting agencies. Higher interest rates are cited as one of the mechanisms that will eventually put a brake on the national economy. Increased taxes will also serve to reinforce this situation. Additionally much of the GDP growth of last quarter represents a buildup in inventories which could eventually cause a slow production if left unsold. Consumer confidence as of late has not been that upbeat, as reported on by the Conference Board. Since consumer spending accounts for two thirds of GDP, it is unlikely that we will see a large surge in economic growth. 

     Closer to home, some parts of Wisconsin are actually experiencing labor shortages. One nearby area is the FOX Cities. Further, a survey by an employment firm indicates that about 26 percent of firms statewide are planning to increase payrolls with only about 13 percent saying they will shrink operations. Further evidence of the health of the Wisconsin economy is that per capita personal income in the state may finally catch that of the USA after trailing for over a decade. 

     In contrast the Central Wisconsin area economy has been rocked over the past number of months. Examples include the closing or the announced closing of Woodward Governor in Stevens Point, J.I. Case in Schofield, Graham Manufacturing in Marshfield, and Ward Paper Company a division of International Paper in Merrill. Further, past layoffs at Sentry Insurance and the downsizing of the University of Wisconsin‑Stevens Point from 9500 to 8500 students and the commensurate decline in faculty‑staff positions have placed a dark cloud over the Central Wisconsin economy. 

     Even with these and other events taking place we should all remember that the area has gone through approximately eight years of solid economic growth. Additionally, many area businesses have announced plans to expand. For example, in the Stevens Point‑Plover area, Sirco, Donaldsons and Menards have or will expand operations. In the Wausau area the Medical Center recently opened a new addition and the downtown revitalization project will hopefully lead to expanded opportunities. Wausau Paper Co. plans to invest over $30 million to upgrade its facilities and the Rib Mountain area is experiencing much development. In Marshfield the new Laird Center for advanced research at the Marshfield Clinic will add to that area's economic base, and Wick's homes has announced its plans to expand operations. Further, the Highway 54 four lane upgrade between Wisconsin Rapids and Plover is substantially complete making the area more attractive as it will become easier to transport goods and people into and out of the region.

 
TABLE 1:
NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 
1993
Third Quarter
1994
Third Quarter
Percent
Change
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Billions)
$6,359.2
$6,775.9
+6.6
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billions of 1987 $)
$5,139.4
$5,359.2
+4.3
Industrial Production
(1987 = 100)
111.0
118.7
+6.9
Three Month U.S. Treasury Bill Rate
2.90%

4.79%

+65.2
Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 = 100)
145.1

149.4

+3.0
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481