For the remainder of this year and into the first part of 1994 the majority of economists are forecasting that the national economy will continue along its path of modest growth. During third quarter 1993 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 2.8 percent annual rate, and, if the country's luck holds, will accelerate to around 3 percent or higher in the fourth quarter. At the margin, it appears that low interest rates are helping to stimulate the economy. However, many economists maintain this pace because of falling consumer and business confidence levels. In other words, the long‑run prognosis is that the economic growth will return to a more modest pace during the latter part of 1994. 

     A question that is often asked is what will the national economic performance be like over the ext five years or perhaps to the end of the decade. Often we assume that matters will not change much and will remain relatively predictable and stable. However, if you examine economic history, one thing that becomes apparent is that change comes often and is unpredictable with regard to its arrival. Thus, to assume that the status quo will always prevail in the future is short‑sighted. The question that then follows is what factors could alter economic relationships in this country. 

     The first factor is the proposed reform to the health care delivery system of this country. The health care system in the United States represents approximately one‑seventh of our entire economy. To the extent that changes are made to this sector, there will be a shifting of economic resources. Second, even if the North American Free Trade Agreement does not pass Congress, the globalization of the world economy will continue and, as a result, exert more pressure for economic change. Economic relationships will be rearranged and the status quo will not prevail. Third, the budgetary problems that face this country have not been solved nor will they go away on their own. The recently passed budget deal does not fix the problem and, furthermore, its impact on the economy is uncertain. As a matter of fact, there seems to be no solution in sight to the country's financial predicament. This factor alone will in and of itself lead to economic pressures which will further change fundamental relationships within our society. 

     No one knows with certainty the magnitude of each of these factors or precisely how they will affect the national economy. However, one can say with little fear of contradiction that these items will disturb the status quo, and our national economy will certainly be in a much different place five years from now. Other factors that will reshape our economy in unpredictable ways include: demographic and ethnic changes in the population, changing technology, especially in cite field of telecommunications and the transmission of information, and random events such as political developments from around the world.