The Stevens Point area economy turned in a good performance for third quarter 1991. With the exception of unemployment claims data, all other economic indicators are acceptable or superior to the marks of twelve months ago. The data for this quarter clearly suggest that the area economy is not yet in recession. Moreover, the economy during the past year has been rather solid and has exhibited little if any weakness. The unemployment rate, while rising, remains low when compared to historic norms. Employment growth, construction activity, key sector employment increases, business surveys, etc. support the inescapable conclusion that so far we have avoided this recession. With the national economy exhibiting so much weakness, it is unclear if and when the national recession will end. The sooner the recession is over, the lower the probability that our area economy will be dragged down. 

     Portage County experienced significant employment growth during the year. Table 7 indicates that all sectors except for trade posted impressive gains. Manufacturing reached an all‑time high in the area with 8400 people employed in the local area. A 2000 job increase in nondurable goods manufacturing contributed the most to the gain. Service sector employment also reached an all‑time high regardless of the time of year, reaching 9710. The same thing can be said for the construction sector where the 1400 employment figure represents a record. Government employment rose by 35 percent from a year ago. However the number of government employees has, for all intents and purposes, remained constant over the last five years. For example, in third quarter 1986 the number employed was 5200. This year's large reported increase is a statistical aberration because of the timing problems associated with the return of the teachers to employment rolls. Overall, nonfarm employment increased from 27,630 to 30,410. This 2750 person increase represents a 10 percent surge in hiring activity. But a word of caution concerning the reported increase in nondurable goods manufacturing is in order. It is likely to be overstated due to estimation problems and will be subject to revision. 

     Retailers in this quarter's CWERB poll think that sales and store traffic are ahead of last year's pace (Table 8). This good news is accompanied by optimistic expectations about future sales. The panel of local merchants expects that store traffic and sales will continue to improve in the months ahead. Looking at the history of this measure of retailer confidence, it appears that the results for this quarter are somewhat more optimistic than usual. 

     Help wanted advertising continues to lag behind the previous year's total. For third quarter the index fell by 20 percent (Table 9). For the record, this is the second consecutive quarter of decline in the index. Over the past six quarters the index has been above the last year's reading three times and below the last year's reading three times. Thus, no clear pattern of expansion or contraction is evident in the advertising index. 

     Table 10 and Table 11 contain virtually the only negative results for third quarter 1991. These measures of local family financial distress show that new public assistance claims rose by 6 on a monthly average basis and .that total caseload fell by approximately 0.7 percent from 1990. On a weekly average basis both new and total unemployment claims filed rose, the former by 9 percent, the latter by 11 percent. It is noteworthy that the number of new unemployment claims filed has risen for the past five years during the third quarter reporting period. Similarly, total unemployment claims filed have increased for the third quarter time period for four consecutive years. Clearly an upward trend in these measures is now well underway. However, not only economic variables but also societal factors play an important role in determining these numbers. 

     Outstanding news comes from the residential construction scene. Table 12 shows that each category of activity posted gains over last year's marks. Residential permits issued increased by 34 percent the estimated value of new homes by 43 percent, the number of housing units by 42 percent, the number of residential alteration permits issued by 2 percent and the estimated value of residential alterations by 42 percent. These increases are all the more impressive coming on top of a decent third quarter 1990 construction performance. Lower interest rates and a sound local economy are helping to drive this quarter's results. 

     Nonresidential construction figures generally are comprised of large, singular events and are therefore more volatile than residential construction statistics
(Table 13). For this reason it is not useful to compare percentage changes from year to year. Overall, new nonresidential construction, in both permits issued and estimated value of new construction was below last year's levels while both nonresidential alteration permits issued and the value of nonresidential alterations exceeded last year's figures. 

     Financial statistics for Portage County are given in Table 14. Unlike last quarter, bank deposit growth and lending managed to keep pace with inflation. This means that in real inflation adjusted terms these categories showed gains. Bank deposits, a measure of local liquidity and income growth, expanded by $13 million. Lending, a measure of local economic activity, increased by $13.5 million during the same period. The lending figure would also suggest that the area economy has expanded even with a recession raging in other parts of the country.