The local economy continued to prosper in the third quarter. The last several years have constituted a period of marked expansion and growth. During this period, Marathon County payrolls and the unemployment rate have moved in the "right" directions. For third quarter 1988 the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since the early 1970s. Moreover, total employment is at a record high, and almost all industrial categories are experiencing very high employment levels. The majority of the statistics presented in the report support the general conclusion that the region and county have continued to grow at a significant rate.

     The future direction of Wausau's economy depends heavily on developments at the national level. There are some indications that the American economy is slowing somewhat,' for example, the recent downturn in the index of leading economic indicators. However, a modest cooling of the economy would be beneficial in terms of keeping inflation in check and thus decreasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve intervention. Local variables, such as retailer confidence, help wanted advertising, and local financial data paint a positive picture of the quarters ahead.

     Marathon County nonfarm employment is given in Table 7. Except for construction, all major categories experienced vigorous growth during the past year. Manufacturing employment increased by 800 or 6.2 percent from 1987. For the past several quarters manufacturing has been the leader in employment growth. Services, trade, and government payrolls were well above last year's totals. All sectors, except for construction, are at decade high marks in the third quarter. In summary, nonfarm employment grew by 2200 positions or a very robust 4.75 percent from a year ago.

     The CWERB's retailer confidence survey is presented in Table 8. Local retailers report that total sales and traffic are better than a year ago. These results are consistent with forecasts of three months ago. Thus, retailer expectations were realized. With regard to expected sales and traffic three months from now compared to last year, the responses were once again positive. Thus, retailers believe that seasonally adjusted consumer spending will reach higher levels in the months ahead.

     The help wanted advertising index for Wausau measures local labor market conditions. The index is at a record high level for the third quarter.  Table 9 shows that there are approximately 2.03 jobs being advertised for each 1.00 in 1980. Moreover, the index is 22 percent higher than a year ago. Thus, the availability of jobs is relatively high when compared to earlier periods. Unfortunately the index is not designed to generate information about the quality of the jobs being advertised. This type of information is more difficult to obtain.

     The public assistance claims data for Wausau are presented in Table 10.  Total caseload and new applications are substantially lower than a year ago. As a matter of fact, the total caseload number is the lowest recorded this decade regardless of the size of the reporting area.

     The unemployment claim data in Table 11 are higher than last year. These unemployment claim increases are most likely the result of changes taking place in production technology and the summer drought.

     A leading indicator of future economic activity is residential construction. The numbers in Table 12 clearly show a decline in activity across all measures of construction except for the number of alteration permits issued. This matter will be closely watched in the months ahead. However, past quarter comparisons have demonstrated that this type of activity has been fluctuating in the Wausau area with no apparent negative consequences.

     Table 13 displays nonresidential construction in the Wausau area. The number of permits was lower than last year. However, the dollar value of the proposed structures was higher. The number of alteration permits was virtually unchanged, but their value was $120 thousand lower. As mentioned in previous reports, this data can be volatile due to the singular nature of this kind of activity. From an historic perspective the numbers for third quarter 1988 are consistent with past experience.

      The financial statistics for Wausau in Table14 are both positive. Bank deposits were above last year by nearly 5 percent. This represents a substantial increase in the amount of local liquidity, i.e. $28 million. The increase reflects the economic expansion that has been taking place at the local level. Supporting this assertion is the data concerning bank lending activity which was up by nearly $18 million or 4.2 percent over a year ago.