For the third consecutive quarter, the local economy turned in a solid performance. The unemployment rate for the county stood at a decade low, 4.0%. Total employment was substantially above last year, i.e. the area added 1600 new positions. Other positive results are as follows. Nonfarm employment grew by a respectable 3.1 %. Retail activity improved over last year, even though there are signs that it was not high as retailers had expected. Unemployment claims were dramatically lower than a year ago. Lastly, financial statistics indicate that consumer activity was heavy in the July to September time frame.

      Looking to the future, a number of local variables indicate that the economy of Portage County should continue to prosper. Key Central Wisconsin industries are experiencing greater profitability than in the past. In addition, the farm situation appears to have stabilized. Moreover, regional business executives are quite confident about conditions in their industries and retailers are optimistic about the future.

     Another positive factor is the robust local labor demand. Thus, it appears that the expansion should continue into next quarter. However, there are important events happening at the national level that could influence the direction of the Central Wisconsin economy and negate local factors. Discussion of these events is given in the Outlook section of the Quarterly Report.

      Table 7 shows that employment in non-farm activities has increased by 720 positions. This is a healthy gain of 3.1 % over last year's total. The major source of local expansion originated in the manufacturing sector. Employment growth in this category accounted for 83 % of the total gain in jobs. Also registering gains were the classifications of services and construction. While government payrolls remained unchanged from last year, and trade was down by approximately 100 positions. However, if third quarter trade employment is compared to three years ago, there has been an increase of 700 positions in retail and wholesale activities.

     Retailer confidence for Stevens Point is given in Table 8. According to local merchants, store sales and traffic are deemed to be only slightly better than a year ago. In June more activity was indicated than in the previous year. Thus, there is an indication that the rate of growth in economic activity has slowed, but it still remains positive. When asked about expected sales and store traffic three months from now compared to the same time last year, merchants indicated that matters are expected to improve. Furthermore, the response levels are at approximately the same levels as last quarter. An interesting development is that if expected store traffic and sales of .June 1987 are contrasted with actual store traffic and sales of September 1987,' an overestimation of activity occurred. Since forecasts made by merchants over the past three years have generally been on target with actual activity, the implication is that retail activity did not expand as rapidly as expected.

      Table 9 presents the help wanted advertising index for Stevens Point. Labor demand continues to be strong. The 193 value is the second highest ever recorded at the CWERB. Only the second quarter 1987 number was higher. The index shows that there were 93070 more jobs advertised during third quarter 1987 than in the base year of 1980. Contrasted with last September, there was a 46% gain in classified advertising for labor. This is a very positive economic indicator for the local area and it should translate into higher levels of employment.

      Public assistance claims for Portage County are given in Table 10. The total case load number is virtually unchanged from last year. However, the statistics on unemployment claims tell of a dramatic change in local conditions.

      Table 11 indicates a huge decrease in total unemployment claims. This decline of 45.50/0 suggests that the strong economic performance of the first and second quarters was carried over into the third quarter.

      Residential construction is a leading economic indicator. It appears that higher interest rates have had a somewhat negative impact on this type of activity. Two key statistics presented in Table 12 are residential permits issued and the number of housing units. Both are down from last year when rates were lower. It should be noted that for the past two years activity has been substantial in residential construction. Therefore, even though activity has contracted to a degree, from a historic point of view, matters still remain positive. Data concerning the estimated value of new homes, alteration permits issued and the value of residential alterations were all above last year's levels.

      In the category of nonresidential construction, several major projects dominated the estimated value statistic (Table 13). The COPPS warehouse expansion accounts for $6.3 million and the Fleet Farm expansion is estimated at $1.85 million. Business alteration permits and the estimated values of business alterations were down from a year ago. Due to the singular nature of business construction, it is not uncommon to observe wide fluctuations in the reported figures. The data over the past several years supports this contention.

The financial information for the community is presented in Table 14. Bank deposits stand 5.0% below the level of last year. Moreover, bank loan activity is up substantially from a year ago. Taken together, these statistics indicate that consumers have been purchasing more and taking on more debt relative to third quarter 1986. This supports the supposition that economic activity was brisk from July to September. One possible implication is that consumers may be reaching a point where retrenchment must be considered.