Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Overview
3rd Quarter 1987

 Table 1

     The national economy grew by approximately 3.0070 during third quarter 1987. While this is not as fast as last quarter, it is still a very respectable showing. Industrial production was greatly improved. The 5.4 % increase indicates that the nation's factories are operating at a higher degree of utilization, which translates into higher national income. Following a trend begun in the spring of this year, interest rates, as reflected, for example, in treasury bill yields, are generally above last year's levels. Inflation, while still not a serious problem, has been accelerating primarily due to the lower dollar, rising energy prices, and increased housing costs. The future direction of the national economy is somewhat more uncertain than it was in the second quarter, due in part to volatility in the stock market and the budget and trade deficits.

     The third quarter of 1987 was very good for the Central Wisconsin economy. Unemployment rates decreased dramatically in Portage, Marathon, and Wood counties. Decade low rates were the rule. Of significance is the fact the region's unemployment rate was lower than that of the state and nation.

     Employment figures also bring good news to the region. Total employment is much above last year's level. All three Central Wisconsin counties shared in the growth. Overall employment has increased by 8.0% or nearly 10,000 jobs since third quarter 1986. It would be an understatement to say that this is just a decent amount of expansion. The state also did quite well, posting a 5.2% gain. Manufacturing lead all sectors in terms of job generation. It appears that manufacturing is making a come back in the area. This is the highest number recorded for manufacturing since the CWERB has been analyzing the regional economy. Services, trade, and government also made impressive strides.

     Key Central Wisconsin industries registered a 9.0% increase in employment. The number of new jobs added amounted to 2,300. The lumber and wood products industry lead the surge by adding 1100 positions. Food processing; and finance, insurance, and real estate employment bolstered regional activity. It is vitally important to the region tliat these basic industries perform well. Furthermore, regional business leaders have indicated to the CWERB that the outlook in their own industries will continue to improve. They also expect that local economic conditions will remain unchanged. Considering the improvement during the past year, this response is encouraging.

     The Stevens Point area for the third quarter in a row registered inn~ressive economic gains. The unemployment rate decreased, while total employmeih and nonfarm employment grew significantly. Furthermore, retail activity has picked up and unemployment claims are much lower than in the previous year. A number of local indicators point toward a continuation of the present expansion. Examples are as follows. Key Central Wisconsin industries are in the midst of profitable years. Retailers are optimistic about their prospects. Local labor demand remains strong. Residential construction, while not as vigorous as last year, is essentially positive. Furthermore, with SNE deciding to stay in the local area, the purchase of the Soo Line by the Wisconsin Central Ltd., the Fleet Farm expansion, and the COPPS warehouse project, the local economy should continue its upward path.

     However, recent events at the national and international levels may have a large impact on how well the local economy performs during the next year. The stock market crash and the twin deficits are matters that must be taken into account when forecasts are made for the local economy.

 
TABLE 1:
NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 
1987
Third Quarter
1986
Third Quarter
Percent
Change
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Billions)
$4,512.0
$4,265.9
+5.8
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billions of 1982 $)
$3,831.2
$3,718.0
+3.0
Industrial Production
(1977 = 100)
131.2

124.5

+5.4
Three Month U.S. Treasury Bill Rate
6.59%

5.20%

+26.7
Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 = 100)
344.4

330.2

+4.3
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481