The arrival of cold weather in Central Wisconsin always leads to a rise in the region's unemployment rate. Agriculture, food processing and construction employment will decline during the fourth quarter. Moving beyond these seasonal factors, there is cause for concern over the weakening of the nation's economic performance. Many economists believe the GNP figures reported for the third quarter will be revised downward.

     Will the economy slip into recession soon? Although the consensus answer remains no, many economists are mentioning the phrase "growth recession." A growth recession is a period in which national output grows at a rate less than the long term average but does not actually decline. A growth recession would mean that some regions will be experiencing actual declines in economic activity.

     The strength of Portage and Wood Counties is likely to keep regional economic activity increasing even in the advent of a growth recession. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Stevens Point economy is likely to continue to grow, though at a somewhat slower pace. Growth will be sparked by downtown construction and expansion in the retail trade sector.