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The local economy appears more than ever to be slowing down. Results for second
quarter 1990 reveal that the local economy is behaving much like the national
economy. Locally, total employment for 1st quarter was unchanged from the
previous year. Moreover, total employment for second quarter actually declined
in Portage County from last year. Softness was also detected in the industrial
sectors, with most classifications reporting declines in employment. Other data
presented in the second quarter report indicate that the economy will continue
to be sluggish for at least the next several months. Close attention must be
paid to national macroeconomic events, as their influence on the local situation
will surely decide the course of the local economy for the remainder of the
year. However, as mentioned in previous reports, local factors and endowments
will play the major role in the continued long run viability of our area, e.g.
water, land, labor force, central location, etc.
Table 7 presents Portage County employment by major
industrial sector. Manufacturing, services, and construction employment levels
were lower than a year ago. Only trade posted a scant gain of 1.6 percent. The
reported gain in government employment is a statistical aberration and can be
explained by the exclusion of teachers in the 1989 June employment count. Given
the long term historic trend it is estimated that government employment is
actually at about the same level as last year. Thus, nonfarm employment most
likely declined in the area by approximately 1200 positions.
The
CWERB merchant survey for Portage County is presented in Table
8. Local merchants believe that matters have improved. They reported that
store traffic and sales were somewhat better than a year ago at the same time.
Further, when asked about their future prospects, this group expects store
traffic and sales to increase in the time period ahead.
For
the fourth consecutive quarter help wanted advertising has declined in the
Stevens Point area, Table 9. Declines in help wanted
advertising have also taken place at the national level. For June 1990, this
barometer of future employment growth shrank by 13.5 percent for Portage County
and 11 percent for the United States. This forecasting device suggests a
continued slowdown in job creation in the months ahead. Sluggish employment data
for the past several quarters at the local and national levels, appear to
confirm index‑based forecasts.
Local family financial distress is portrayed in Table 10
and Table 11. The data for second quarter 1990 indicate
that new applications for public assistance claims were higher by 23.1 percent,
rising from a monthly average of 104 to 128. In conjunction with this, the total
caseload increased by .7 percent or an average of 11 cases per month. In
contrast to this information, Table 11 shows that new unemployment claims on a
weekly average basis have declined by 14.6 percent or 6 claims per week.
Moreover, total unemployment claims have dropped from an average of 103 per week
to 77, a decrease of 25.2 percent. The data in both Table 10 and 11 show
considerable improvement over the values recorded several years before, a clear
indicator that the economy has made great strides over the past few years.
Residential construction, a leading economic indicator of overall future
activity, continues to lag behind the marks established in prior years. In all
reported categories construction activity fell behind the 1989 pace. The
information presented in Table 12 includes a broad
geographic area in order to capture activity in the neighboring townships and is
thus a good barometer as to the health of the construction sector as well as the
overall economy.
Table 13 contains nonresidential construction information
for the local area. The results for second quarter 1990 fall close to the
historic norms for the various categories of activity. Percentage changes from
year to year are not given due to the inherent volatility of nonresidential
construction activity.
The
financial statistics for second quarter 1990 are presented in
Table 14. The amount of bank deposits, a measure of local liquidity, reached
a record high for second quarter rising from $287.5 to $311.2 million or a gain
of 8.2 percent Bank lending, a measure of economic activity, reached an all‑time
high regardless of the time of year. Lending reached $230.0 million, and
increase of $14.1 million from last year. As stated in previous reports, the
lending figure may be overstated somewhat due to inter-company transfers of
assets. |