CWERB - Stevens Point Area 2nd Quarter 1987

The Stevens Point area economy is improved over that of last year. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.2070 which is considerably under the 7.5% of last year. Total employment has risen by 1000 positions, with the majority of the increase originating in the farm economy. Total nonfarm employment was slightly better and was led by manufacturing's 700 position gain. Retailers indicate that store sales and traffic are "somewhat" better and public assistance claims have contracted. Finally, bank lending and consumer demand were strong during the second quarter reflecting conditions in the housing market. The future should bring more prosperity to the local economy as industry responds to relatively low interest rates, modest inflation, improved profitability and a lower dollar. Moreover, the farm economy appears to have bottomed out and is slowly improving. The CWERB series of leading economic indicators supports this conclusion. The Business Confidence Index implies that regional and industry conditions are not likely to deteriorate in the months ahead. Retail activity is likely to accelerate and labor demand continues to be strong. Finally, residential construction continued the "hot" pace of first quarter 1987.

Portage County nonfarm employment is given in Table 7. Manufacturing grew by 700 positions. The vitality of the manufacturing sector is in contrast with the performance of the other sectors. No growth occurred in any of the other classifications. However, the reported decreases were small in nature and not dramatic. Total nonfarm employment expanded by 120 positions or by .5% from last year. The surge in first quarter nonfarm employment appears to have been a product of the mild winter weather.

Table 8 gives retailer confidence in Stevens Point. The data indicates that retailers are generally less optimistic than in March. However, the range of the response levels can still be interpreted as indicating that matters are improved over last year. In particular, expected sales and store traffic levels three months from now should exceed those of one year ago. This is a healthy sign for the local scene.

Table 9 contains information on local labor demand. Labor market conditions continue to be strong. Compared to the base period of June 1980 there was a 122 percent increase in the number of jobs being advertised and a 28 percent increase over that of last year's 173 level. As a matter of record the 222 figure is the highest recorded by the index regardless of quarter and is the sixth consecutive quarter that the index has been above last year's levels.

Table 10 displays public assistance claims data for Portage County. The purpose of the table is to determine the general direction of financial distress in the local communities. New applications. and total caseload monthly averages have decreased from last year. Unemployment claims in Table 11 show an improvement over those of last year. Given that total county employment and labor force have increased over last year, the rise in unemployment claims reflects the fact that discouraged workers have been induced to re-enter the labor market.

Residential construction continued at the "booming" pace established in first quarter. Table 12 shows that activity was much improved in each category. More houses were built than last year. But of greater significance is that the average value of those new homes has risen dramatically. Thus, individuals in the greater Stevens Point area are spending larger amounts on the purchase of new homes, which demonstrates a confidence about their economic position in the community.

Nonresidential construction data in Table 13 shows that building permits during second quarter totaled 12. The estimated value of this new construction was 1.21 million dollars, up slightly from last year. The number of business alteration permits and their associated estimated value were down somewhat from last year. Overall business investment in the community continues the trend of steadily adding to the local capital stock established over the past several years.

Financial statistics for Portage County are listed in Table 14. Like first quarter 1987 bank deposits slightly contracted while bank loan activity remained vigorous. The pattern over the last six months suggests that local economic activity has, in part, been fueled by consumer spending. It should be noted that lending activity is understated by an amount equal to the dollar amount of loans resold in the secondary market.