This section of the report focuses on the
Stevens Point
area economy. Tables 7-13 provide local information on labor
markets, governmental assistance to individuals, construction
activity and financial institutions.
Table 7 is based on employment change by
sector for Portage
County. These data
indicate a strong local economic expansion. All sectors, with the
exception of government, show solid growth. The two most cyclically
sensitive sectors-manufacturing and construction-have led the way
with dramatic percentage gains. The total number of jobs added in
construction is relatively small. Gains in manufacturing employment
have been paced by the paper, lumber and furniture industries.
As significant as the manufacturing and construction sector gains
have been in Portage County,
the most encouraging conclusion drawn from Table 7
is that the local expansion is broad based. In contrast to the first
quarter report, respectable increases in the service and trade
sectors are evident. Moreover, these sectors are relatively large,
therefore comparatively small percentage increases translated into
660 new jobs. The trade sector has finally turned the corner, adding
400 jobs in the second quarter, primarily because of the opening of
the Factory Outlet Mall in Plover.
The only blemish in the otherwise positive scenario revealed by
Table 7 is the decline in government
employment. Although the drop is sizable, it is entirely due to the
reporting methods of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. The
university reports all full-time and part-time employees (including
students). The June 1984 data was gathered when UW-SP was between
spring and summer sessions. Adjusting for this one time decrease in
the state government payroll, total private sector employment in
Portage
County is up a very strong
9.0% over last June. A payroll increase of this magnitude is
surprising in light of recent major layoffs, although the American
Potato Division cutback has not yet shown up in the numbers.
Table 8 indicates that help wanted
advertising in the Stevens
Point area is appreciably higher than the
June 1983 figure. This reflects a sizable jump in labor demand. A
technical note regarding the help wanted index is in order here. The
index is partially seasonally adjusted by setting June 1980 equal to
100. June was the beginning of the short but sharp 1980 recession.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the index for 1983 and 1984
both register above 100. The important conclusion to be drawn from
Table 8 is the large jump in advertising from June 1983 to June
1984.
The need for general public assistance in
Stevens Point
is down 43% over the year earlier level (Table 9).
This indicator tends to lag the overall economy. However, initial
unemployment claims tend to lead economic activity and they are well
above the second quarter 1983 level (Table 10).
Initial unemployment claims are also 12.6% above the first quarter
reading. This trend must be watched closely in coming quarters.
Construction figures for the Stevens Point-Plover area once again
are positive. Table 11 provides evidence of
strength in residential construction. The estimated value of new
homes, number of housing units and residential alteration activity
are well above the second three months of 1983. However, the gains
are far less (in percentage terms) than in the previous quarter and
the number of residential permits is down slightly. Nevertheless,
residential construction, both nationally and locally, has shown
remarkable resilience to high real interest rates.
Nonresidential construction added considerable strength to the local
expansion in the second three months of this year (Table
12). The large jump in the value of new structures can be
attributed to permits issued to First Financial Savings and Loan
Association, Wisconsin Bell and Journal Printing.
Table 13 shows that bank deposits and loans
are up smartly over last year. However, almost all of this gain
occurred in the second half of 1983. Deposits have been basically
flat since January. A continuation of this trend suggests a future
slowdown in the area economy.