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INTRODUCTION
Each
presidential election cycle has its own character and hot-button issues, derived
partly from the personalities of the candidates but also from the realities of
the period. A year ago it appeared that
the 2008 election would be a referendum on the resolution of the war in Iraq and
that national security issues would once again carry the day.
Today rising energy prices and the
mortgage crisis have pushed economics to the forefront, with John McCain and
Barack Obama charged by their parties to address the concerns of voters.
A recent New York Times/CBS News poll
clearly shows this shift in voter priorities with 40% of those polled citing the
“economy and jobs” as their greatest concern, and an additional 15% citing the
economic issue of “Gas prices, energy policy”. At the same time, only a combined
24% of those polled considered the “War in Iraq” (15%) or “Terrorism, national
security” (9%) to be their top priority. The
poll numbers show that “voters are more negative about the condition of the
nation’s economy this election year than they have been at any time since 1992”
(Cooper and Sussman, 8/21/08). As such
the economic platforms of each candidate have been receiving increasing
attention as the election enters the homestretch.
Unfortunately, past experience suggests that voters can be assured of two things
about the 2008 election: the candidates will disagree.
Each candidate will have their positions distorted by the other.
This report attempts to cut through this election year fog by revealing
the real economic programs of Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
To accomplish this task the paper first
lays the ground work for the analysis by examining the economic theory behind
the candidates’ positions. It next examines some specific components of the
platforms related to economic stimulus, tax policy, fiscal and spending policy,
mortgage reform, and health care. While
this is by no means a comprehensive list, these components are areas which
highlight the major disagreements between the candidates.
The final section concludes the report.
IN SEARCH OF
PLATFORM SUPPORT: THE ECONOMIC THEORY
If asked to
describe the economic policies of Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack
Obama, it is likely that many people would respond based on the common
stereotypes of the two parties. Republicans
of course are the fiscal conservatives, working to balance the budget and
stimulating economic growth through tax cuts. Democrats on the other hand are
the interventionists, raising taxes to pay for increased government spending and
more extensive regulation. In more
technical terms the debate has the Republicans carrying the flag for the
neoclassical supply side economists with the Democrats posing as the poster
children for Keynesian economists.
While
clearly a simplification of reality and generally outdated, each of these
stereotypes has a well-rounded, supporting economic theory and ideology which at
times has matched the actual policies quite closely.
In short, supply side economists believe
in free markets. Open competition
between self-motivated individuals and businesses will allocate scarce resources
efficiently as those with more valuable uses for the resources should be willing
to pay more for them. Primarily government’s role in the economy is simply to
stay out of the way. Governments
also can encourage growth by providing incentives that influence individuals and
businesses to act in a way which will not only benefit themselves, but also the
economy as a whole. By and large they
take the form of tax cuts, which provide financial incentives to targeted groups
without interfering with or regulating the market in any way.
The tax cuts simply change the relative
profitability of different actions in the market.
While tax cuts are not uniquely
advocated by the supply-siders to stimulate economic activity, the types of tax
cuts distinguish the group. Rather than
use taxes primarily to stimulate aggregate demand, supply side economists
believe that tax cuts encourage increased labor effort and capital formation
leading to greater stocks of capital and labor that increase aggregate supply,
thus avoiding the demand side’s tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. Of
particular interest to the supply-siders are tax rate reductions on corporate
income, capital gains, dividends, investment, and research and development as
these create incentives to save and expand businesses, driving the economy’s
capacity outward. Expanding economic capacity creates income not just for
entrepreneurs, but also for those now working in the growing businesses.
As a convenient side effect, the tax
cuts should not even increase the budget deficit as surging economic activity
expands the base, offsetting declines in tax revenue from pre-existing sources.
Supply side economists do recognize that
in the short run most of the tax incentives will tend to benefit the wealthier
segments of society because they are the individuals with money to invest, but
in the long run everyone will benefit from the overall economic expansion.
On the other
hand, Keynesian economists view markets with more apprehension and advocate a
greater role for government in the economy. While
the Keynesians do not completely reject the efficiency aspect of markets, they
believe that there are significant imperfections in their functioning.
Inspired by the events of the Great
Depression, Keynesians believe that unfettered capitalist economies will be
subject to extensive business cycles due to imperfectly functioning markets and
human behavior. To Keynesians the belief
that the economy has a system of natural stabilizers is completely wrong, as
they see de-stabilizing elements deeply ingrained in the markets themselves.
However, Keynesians believe that the market economy can be managed by a watchful
government to capture the efficiency of markets without the devastating
depressions. Unlike the supply-siders, Keynesians believe that tax cuts can be
an effective means to increase personal income and aggregate demand rather than
to encourage capital formation. In
addition, Keynesians advocate aggregate demand stimulation through direct
government spending to create jobs and replace the economic activity not being
provided by the private sector. To
encourage capital formation, and stimulate aggregate demand, Keynesians
generally use interest rates as an incentive rather than tax cuts.
With respect to the budget, Keynesians
believe that sometimes deficit spending is necessary to stimulate aggregate
demand, and that the deficit can be paid for when the economy recovers.
Keynesians do recognize that this type
of intervention in the economy requires a careful, watchful eye, but believe
that government with its elected officials and appointed experts is capable of
playing this caretaker role.
The key
question is whether these stereotypes match the actual policies of the
candidates and fairly represent their economic platforms.
When one examines John McCain’s
policies, as I do later in the report, it appears that his economic platform
does seem to mesh relatively well with the supply side label.
On the other hand, Barack Obama’s
policies seem to represent a less consistent ideology than the simple Keynesian
policies described above. In fact, while
it can be argued that on social issues Obama is more liberal than many in the
Democratic Party, on economic issues Obama in many ways appears much more
conservative than other Democrats. This
is not to say that Obama has rejected government spending as an effective method
of economic stimulus, or that he believes all government regulation is
distortionary and should be repealed. As
I will show in more detail, Obama’s policies do make use of both of these
methods and are cornerstones of his economic package.
However, Obama’s policies do reflect a
much greater level of comfort with the functioning of markets to reach favorable
outcomes, a characteristic which seems to make some fellow Democrats
uncomfortable. Obama’s economic policies
have even earned him the label of a “University of Chicago Democrat” in
reference to the market focused economics traditionally championed by the
institution as well as his time spent teaching there (Leonhardt 8/24/08).
But this philosophy is not due to a
simple biographical link, and is not a simple mix of economic ideologies.
Rather the combination of market and
regulatory approaches suggests the influence of a third school of economic
thought, known as behavioral economics.
In general,
behavioral economics is a market based approach to economic matters in that it
does not call for intrusive government regulation[1].
Where it differs from neoclassical
economics, likely due to its psychological roots, is in the deep questioning of
a primary assumption of the rational economic individual.
Behavioral economists recognize that
individuals do not always make the “right” decision even when presented with all
the information and do not always act solely out of self-interest as the theory
says they should. For the behavioralists
the challenge is to frame decisions or to give a “gentle nudge” so that
individuals freely make their own decision, yet that the decision will tend to
be the “correct” decision from the perspective of policymakers (Cassidy
6/12/08). As defined by two leaders in
the field a “nudge, as we will use the term, is any aspect of the choice
architecture that alters people’s behavior in a predictable way without
forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives” (as
quoted in Cassidy 6/12/08). This
combination of market utilization and government paternalism is the pragmatic
mix of economic policy which makes some Obama policies look stereotypically
un-Democratic.
There are a
few general principles which drive behavioral economics.
One is inertia, which is the general
insight that individuals do not always change their behavior even if it is in
their best interest. The key here is not
to tell everyone what to do, but to make the default choice the appropriate one
for most of the people involved and for the welfare of society.
Another is the misuse of information
when making decisions. Behavioralists speak of “anchoring” which is the
inability of individuals to let go of even meaningless information and allowing
it to influence a decision. Other
examples are the “availability heuristic” which is the use of the most obvious
information to make a decision even if it is not the most relevant and the
“representativeness heuristic” which is where individuals are influenced by
non-existent patterns that they think they see (Cassidy 6/12/08).
The answer here again is not to fix
decisions, but to make information easy to understand and relevant so that
individuals can make better decisions on their own.
These simple guidelines have shaped a
number of Obama’s policies which I will examine in more detail in the next
section.
IN SEARCH OF
VOTER SUPPORT: THE ECONOMIC PROGRAMS
With the
simple descriptions of economic theory from the previous section in mind, I now
turn to specific components of the candidates’ plans.
Before jumping into the analysis, it is
worth mentioning a difference in style between the campaigns.
While both candidates accuse the other
of vague campaign promises, outside observers have noted a “paper gap” in the
McCain camp, referring to the relative lack of specific policy papers detailing
his proposals (Zenilman 8/2/08). While
greater volume does not necessarily make for better public policy, the lack of
details does mean that interpreting how McCain plans to accomplish his goals is
more difficult. At the same time the
flood of detailed briefs from the Obama camp makes it difficult to discern which
policies are to be taken most seriously as it seems unlikely all are honestly
expected to be implemented. With this in
mind I examine the candidates’ platforms relating to immediate economic
stimulus, tax policy, fiscal and spending policy, mortgage reform, and health
care. Specific details of the
candidates’ plans are presented in Table 1.
Immediate
Economic Stimulus
As the
economic situation in the country deteriorated during the spring and summer, how
to stimulate the economy became a topic that the candidates increasingly had to
address. During the contentious
Democratic primary season Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were more than happy
to do so as the economy seemed to be a clear weakness for the incumbent party.
Not surprisingly Obama emerged from the
contest with a detailed plan to address the current economic conditions, which
he updated further as the summer progressed. On
the other hand, John McCain, whose policies more closely resemble those of
George Bush, was more reluctant to outline a detailed stimulus plan since such a
plan implies the failure of Bush’s economic policy.
As such, McCain’s stimulus package is not as extensive as that of Obama.
Both plans
focus on rising energy costs, although the candidates approach the issue in
different ways. From early in the spring
McCain called for a suspension of the federal gas tax, a repeal of the tax on
imported sugar-based ethanol and a roll back on corn-based ethanol mandates
which he blamed for higher corn and food prices.
While McCain’s cornerstone policy of a gas tax holiday may have been
popular with voters it was widely panned by economists of all persuasions as the
reduction of the tax likely would be captured by the oil companies and have
little effect on price. Obama on the
other hand recently called for an energy rebate of $500 per individual and
$1,000 per family to be financed by a tax on so called windfall profits of oil
companies. Calling the rebate an “energy
rebate” directs attention towards the concerns of voters although in reality the
rebate is similar to the rebate checks sent out by the government earlier in the
summer. In theory, if people spend the
checks the economy would receive some stimulus.
Critics argue though, that while a tax on oil companies may be
politically popular, companies will simply pass the tax onto consumers through
higher prices. To the extent that this
is possible, those who consume a disproportionate amount of oil may actually see
themselves hurt by the policy.
An
interesting area where the candidates initially disagreed dramatically was
foreclosure assistance. Looking at Table
1 this may seem rather surprising as now the candidates’ policies are actually
rather similar, with both advocating renegotiation of loans with varying degrees
of public assistance. The main
differences between the plans are the eligibility requirements and the level of
support, with Obama’s plan tending to be more generous.
The difference is that McCain initially
declined to offer any assistance in the crisis, saying that the market would
correct itself by punishing those who had made poor decisions.
Although the stance likely seemed
heartless to voters the position was clearly in line with his economic ideology.
After McCain received enough pressure to
finally offer a plan, he strongly emphasized that no speculators would be helped
by the program, a principle also advocated by Obama.
Obama
clearly separates himself from McCain with the final segment of his plan which
calls for extensive government spending. The
two packages of $25 billion given to states to offset budget and infrastructure
cuts are textbook government spending stimulus designed to prop up aggregate
demand. When combined with the tax
stimulus paid for by a regulatory style tax increase on a specific industry and
a new government assistance program, Obama’s plan is stereotypically Democratic
in its ideology and does not show much of the new thought that his other
policies reflect. However, Obama’s
package does address the current economic situation to a much greater degree and
is likely to stimulate the economy much more than McCain’s plan.
From a political perspective Obama’s
package is also likely to attract voters who believe the economy is currently in
a recession.
Tax Policy
Although the
stimulus packages are highlighted in the candidates’ campaigns (particularly for
Obama) it is the candidates’ tax policy that reveals their long term plans for
the economy. It is also the candidates’
tax policy that we see the most consistent representation of the candidates’
economic ideologies.
Not
surprisingly, McCain’s platform details tax cuts of the supply side variety.
The cornerstone of the package is to
extend President Bush’s tax cuts on personal income, but also on dividends and
capital gains, two taxes vilified by supply-siders as disincentives to invest.
McCain also plans new supply-side cuts,
calling for significant reductions to the corporate income tax and the estate
tax. Two other notable moves to
encourage adoption of new technology are to expand and make permanent a credit
for R & D, and to allow first year expensing of equipment and technology
investments, a policy allowing companies to receive their tax breaks immediately
rather than over time. In moves designed to impact the middle class McCain also
supports phasing out the Alternative Minimum Tax (although his position on this
has been inconsistent, shifting from “eliminate” to “phase out” over the
campaign). He also supports
doubling the dependent exemption. The
only tax increase the campaign has mentioned is a vague reference to the
elimination of oil company exemptions, a policy which is likely more political
than economic. Overall McCain’s policies
are consistent and for supporters of the supply-side paradigm, right on track.
Obama’s plan
also features a significant number of tax cuts although the focus is much more
on middle to lower income tax payers. Like
McCain, Obama supports extending Bush’s tax cuts for all but the top two tax
brackets and supports permanent tax credits for R & D, although the credits are
less generous than those proposed by McCain. Other cornerstone tax cuts or
credits proposed by Obama are $500/$1,000 refundable tax credits for
individuals/families based on payroll taxes paid, exempting seniors with incomes
below $50,000 from paying taxes, a Universal Mortgage Credit to make it easier
for families to claim interest payments, and other expansions of current
programs. Obama has also advocated eliminating capital gains taxes for start-ups
but has not clearly defined how this would be determined.
To pay for the cuts there are tax
increases as well. Along with the return
to the higher rates for the top two tax brackets, Obama also supports increasing
the rate on dividends and capital gains to 20% for those with incomes above
$250,000, and a 45% top rate on estates above $7 million. Like McCain, Obama
also makes vague political promises to eliminate tax loopholes for
multi-national corporations and eliminate tax breaks for companies who send jobs
overseas. By targeting his tax cuts and
making many credits refundable Obama has shown that he plans to address the
income inequality which he believes is a fundamental problem in the country.
In their
campaign rhetoric, Obama claims that he will cut taxes, while McCain’s campaign
repeatedly states that Obama will raise taxes. On
the surface it would appear that both of these claims cannot be true, but as in
most political issues the answer of who is correct depends on your perspective
and how you define the issue. Clearly
the campaigns have differing views of what types of tax cuts should take place,
but according to the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan group which has conducted
an extensive analysis of both plans, both candidates would cut taxes overall,
although McCain would cut them by a greater amount.
Looking at the distribution of tax cuts however, Obama would cut taxes by
a significantly larger amount for the bottom 80% of the income distribution (Burman
et al. 2008). From the perspective of
the vast majority of the population both candidates are tax cutters with Obama
in the lead. On the other hand, where
McCain would cut taxes for all income quintiles, Obama does raise taxes for the
top quintile, and within the top quintile, particularly the top 1% of households
(Burman et al. 2008). From the
perspective of the top earners, McCain’s claim about Obama is correct as well.
Whose policy is better depends primarily on your economic ideology, and
likely where you fall within the income distribution.
Both
candidates’ tax plans also make efforts to simplify the system.
McCain has proposed an alternative
system with only two tax rates and a generous standard deduction.
People could pay taxes under the
simplified system or opt to pay under the old system if they desired.
McCain’s proposal rests on his belief
that Americans do not mind paying taxes but dislike the complexity of the IRS
code. In Obama’s plan we can see a bit
of the behavioral economics ideology coming into play.
Obama has proposed a policy where
individuals with simple returns would receive a pre-filled tax form based on
information the IRS already collects. Individuals
could then simply verify and return the form to file their taxes.
What makes the policy a “nudge” as
defined above is that the current system is not altered in any way, nor is
individual choice limited. Individuals
are still subject to the same tax code as before, and importantly, individuals
can choose to fill out their own forms if they wish.
However, the default option will likely
get more individuals to file their taxes and file their taxes correctly.
Rather than completely reform the system
like McCain’s policy would, Obama’s policy looks to frame behavior within the
framework that already exists.
Fiscal and
Spending Policy
The
questions that naturally arise from the candidates’ tax cuts are:
What will they do to the budget deficit?
How do they intend to pay for them? In
terms of a general fiscal stance both candidates have said that they will cut
deficits even while cutting taxes, although McCain has taken a much stronger
stance on the issue setting a 2013 date for a balanced budget.
Obama has stated that his policies are
self-funding and will cut into the deficit, but he has not given any specific
dates for a balanced budget.
Presumably
if the budget is going to be balanced and taxes are to be cut, the difference
must be made up by spending cuts. Each
candidate has stated they intend to cut earmarks:
McCain through line-veto power and Obama
by publicly disclosing earmarks. McCain has also proposed a one year pause in
discretionary spending to evaluate all programs, something which will likely be
very difficult to accomplish. Obama’s
centerpiece policies would put pay as you go rules into effect where any new
spending or tax cuts would have to be paid from somewhere else in the budget.
He also calls for competitive bidding for any contract above $25,000 to
keep government accountable. Obama has also promised to cut “wasteful” spending,
which for him likely includes spending in Iraq, while McCain has said that
savings from victories in Iraq and Afghanistan would go directly towards cutting
the budget. Unfortunately it is very
difficult to definitively count on either of these areas as reliable spending
cuts. Not surprisingly, numerous
observers have questioned the ability of either candidate to meet their
budgetary goals (Nicholas 7/8/08; Pear 7/8/08; Sasseen 8/7/08).
Whether these doubts will hurt the
candidates politically is unclear, although given McCain’s firm stance on
balancing the budget doubts may raise greater skepticism by voters.
Mortgage
Reform
One issue
which has been somewhat new to this election, given events over the past year,
is mortgage reform. Both candidates have
put forth policies to help with foreclosures as discussed previously, but the
crisis has spurred the candidates to propose protections against future crises.
Given the typical predilections of
Democrats this would seem like an obvious time for direct government regulation
of the industry, but Obama does not go this route.
Instead the cornerstone of both
campaigns is information. McCain calls for greater transparency and
accountability although he does not outline how this would actually be
implemented. Obama on the other hand has
advocated creating something called a Homeowner Obligation Made Explicit (HOME)
score to rate mortgages. The
standardized HOME score would be mandated by the government, and would have to
be reported on all mortgage materials. However, the proposal would not require
companies to change the types of mortgages they offer as it is recognized that
unconventional mortgages may be good choices for some consumers. The idea of the
reform is simply that consumers when given better, more relevant information
will make better mortgage decisions. Once
again the policy is emblematic of a behavioral way of thinking. Rather than
burden the industry with extensive, expensive regulation, government steps in
only to frame the information in a better way. Consumers are pushed in the right
direction by relevant information, but are still free to make poor choices.
Given concerns about the financial
health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it is likely that mortgage issues will be
an important one for the next President.
Health Care
A final
issue which has been very important in the election is health care.
The debate has two areas of emphasis for
both candidates: cost reduction and health insurance provision.
In terms of cost reduction, both
candidates advocate similar proposals. Both
support reimportation of drugs, generic drugs (McCain through faster generic
introduction and Obama through greater use), deployment of modern information
technology, and greater transparency about treatment options, quality, and
costs. The candidates take slightly
different approaches to manage costs. McCain
puts more emphasis on coordinated care as well as tort reform to protect doctors
who follow clinical guidelines. Obama on
the other hand takes a more interventionist approach by giving government the
right to negotiate prices with drug companies and by forcing insurers to pay a
portion of premiums for patient care. Much
of the concern over health care inflation is over the accelerating cost of the
Medicare program. As such, both
candidates have made cost reduction an important part of their health plans.
Turning to
the health insurance provision side of the debate we see a greater divergence in
tactics. Consistent with his economic
ideology McCain focuses on competition and individual responsibility.
A primary proposal is to allow greater
competition in the market by allowing individuals to buy policies across state
lines. McCain advocates competition to improve quality and variety as well, but
he does not delineate any specific plans. Perhaps
the greatest reform by McCain would be to alter the tax treatment of health
insurance premiums. McCain proposes
removing the exclusion of employer-provided health insurance premiums from
taxable income and instead give a $2,500 refundable tax credit per individual
for premiums paid. Analysts have said
that the $2,500 credit would initially be very generous particularly if the cost
reduction efforts were successful, although whether it would maintain its
generosity would depend on how the credit was indexed (Burman et al. 2008).
The credit would also apply to insurance
purchased outside of the job, giving people greater choices as well as helping
alleviate the portability problems with health insurance.
Obama’s
program reflects his mixed economic ideology as well, combining government
programs and mandates with the behavioral free choice approach.
The primary focus of the plan is to
create a national health plan which could be purchased by those who wished to do
so, and to create a National Health Insurance Exchange (NHIE) which would help
individuals buy private health plans by evaluating plans and regulating their
quality and premiums. Obama’s plan would
also mandate coverage for children and forces employers with no meaningful
coverage to pay into the NHIE. Despite
the government intervention Obama does keep a behavioral nuance to the program
by not mandating adults to buy coverage for themselves.
Once again the logic is that if costs
are reduced and information about plans is available, individuals will tend to
make the appropriate choice and sign up for insurance.
The proposal would also in theory
improve the variety of choices for individuals and would help with portability
issues, but critics have argued that the government portion of the program would
still be too expensive if costs did not actually go down as suggested.
As with the
mortgage reform issue, grave financial issues within the Medicare system are
sure to make health care reform an important topic for many years to come.
The effectiveness of the cost reduction
policies put into place by the winner will go a long way towards determining
what type of health care system we will see in the future.
CONCLUSION
While the
above analysis is by no means a comprehensive list of all issues I believe that
they represent the most interesting examples of their economic ideologies.
I have left out other issues such as labor law reform, Social Security,
and free trade, not because they are unimportant, but because the candidates
have generally toed the party line on these issues.
Likewise I have left out the candidates’
long term energy policies because it is very unclear how much of them are actual
reforms and how much are purely political campaign promises.
What should be said is that both
candidates are trying to paint clean and alternative energy reforms as job
growth machines. The spin on the energy
issue displays the candidates’ efforts to combine the two most important issues
for many voters.
Overall the
analysis suggests that McCain has stayed true to the recent supply-side leanings
of the Republicans which he has been able to clearly convey to voters, while
Obama has struggled somewhat to communicate his nuanced approach to voters and
even other Democrats. Whether either
economic platform will actually be successful in terms of the short or long run
I leave to other analysts to determine. Part
of the difficulty in any analysis of the plans is that there is no way of
knowing which reforms would actually be successfully implemented, particularly
for McCain who would likely face Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.
What can be said is whoever wins the
Presidency this November will face daunting challenges in the economy and must
be prepared to work with the other party to achieve solutions to very serious
problems.
References
“Barack
Obama’s Emergency Economic Plan”. 2008.
http://www.barackobama.com/2008/08/01/senator_barack_obama_announces.php.
“Barack
Obama’s Plan for a Healthy America”. 2008.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/issues/HealthCareFullPlan.pdf.
“Barack
Obama’s Plan for Restoring Fiscal Discipline”. 2008.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/issues/fiscal/ObamaPolicy_Fiscal.pdf.
Burman, Len,
Surachai Khitatrakun, Greg Leiserson, Jeff Rohaly, Eric Toder, and Bob Williams.
2008. “An Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans:
Revised August 15, 2008”. Tax Policy
Center Report.
Cassidy,
John. 2008. “Economics: Which Way for Obama?”.
The New York Review of Books. Vol.
55(10): June 12, 2008.
Cooper,
Michael and Dalia Sussman. 2008. “Voters in Poll Want Priority to Be Economy,
Their Top Issue”. The New York Times.
August 21, 2008.
“Jobs for
America: The McCain Economic Plan”. 2008.
http://www.johnmccain.com/Issues/jobsforamerica/
“Keeping
America’s Promise: Strengthening the Middle Class”. 2008.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/issues/economy/Obama_Keeping_Americas_Promise.pdf.
Leonhardt,
David. 2008. “How Obama Reconciles Dueling Views on Economy”.
The New York Times Magazine. August
24, 2008.
Nicholas,
Peter. 2008. “Adding up the Cost of Obama’s Agenda”.
The Los Angeles Times. July 8, 2008.
Pear,
Robert. 2008. “Skepticism on McCain Plan to Balance Budget by 2013”.
The New York Times. July 8, 2008.
Sahadi,
Jeanne. 2008. “McCain Outlines Plan for Economy”.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/10/news/economy/mccain_econ_plan/index.htm.
Sasseen,
Jane. 2008. “Why Their Economic Plans Don’t Add Up”.
Business Week. August 7, 2008.
Zenilman,
Avi. 2008. “McCain’s Camp Suffers from a Paper Gap”.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12215.html.
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Table 1: Candidate Economic Programs
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McCain
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Obama
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Immediate Economic Stimulus
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Gas and Food prices:
-
Suspend 18.4 cent per gallon federal gas tax and 24.4 cent per gallon
diesel tax
-
Repeal 54 cent per gallon tax on imported sugar-based ethanol
-
Roll back corn-based ethanol mandates
Foreclosure Assistance:
-
HOME plan for eligible homeowners to trade sub-prime mortgage for 30
year fixed rate mortgage
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Gas prices:
-
Energy rebate of $500 per individual paid for by tax on windfall profits
of oil companies ($1,000 per family)1
Foreclosure Assistance:
-
$10 billion fund to help homeowners renegotiate their loans possibly
through public agencies
Spending:
-
$25 billion to State Growth Funds to offset state budget cuts for
services1
-
$25 billion to Jobs and Growth Fund to offset state cuts in
infrastructure and school repairs1
-
Extended and expanded Unemployment Insurance benefits
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Tax Policy
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Cuts and Credits:
-
Extend Bush tax cuts on personal income and keep 15% tax rate on
dividends and capital gains
-
Cut top corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%
-
Phase out Alternative Minimum Tax
-
Double personal exemption for dependents from $3,500 to $7,000
-
Reduce estate tax to 15% with $10 million exemption
-
Permanent credit for 10% of wages spent on R & D
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Cuts and Credits:
-
Extend Bush tax cuts on personal income for all but top two brackets2
-
$500/$1000 refundable tax credit offsetting payroll taxes for
individuals/families
-
Expand and make refundable Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit
-
Exempt seniors making less than $50,000 from income taxes
-
Make R & D credit permanent
-
Universal Mortgage Credit of 10% of interest (up to $800)
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Table 1 (cont.): Candidate Economic Programs
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McCain
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Obama
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Tax
Policy (cont.)
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Cuts and Credits (cont.):
-
First year expensing of equipment and technology investments
Increases:
-
Elimination of oil company exemptions2
Simplifications:
-
Simplified, optional alternative system with generous standard deduction
and two rates
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Cuts and Credits (cont.):
-
Eliminate capital gains taxes for start-ups
-
Expand Earned Income Tax Credit
Increases:
-
Restore top personal tax rates to 36% and 39.6%2
-
Restore 45% estate tax rate for estates over $7 million2
-
Increase rates on dividends and capitals gains to 20% for incomes above
$250,0002
-
Eliminate tax loopholes for multi-nationals
-
End tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas
Simplifications:
-
Pre-filled forms from IRS for simple filings that can be verified and
returned
|
|
Fiscal and Spending Policy
|
Overall Fiscal Policy:
-
Balance budget by 2013
Spending Plans:
-
One year discretionary spending pause for review
-
Eliminate earmarks with line-item veto
-
Reserve savings from victory in Iraq and Afghanistan for deficit
reduction
|
Overall Fiscal Policy:
-
Deficit reduction without specific dates
Spending Plans3:
-
PAYGO rules enforced
-
Eliminate earmarks through public disclosure
-
Make government more accountable by bidding out contracts over $25,000
-
Cut “wasteful” spending
|
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Table 1 (cont.): Candidate Economic Programs
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|
|
McCain
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Obama
|
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Mortgage Reform
|
Mortgage Reform:
-
Promote greater transparency and accountability
-
Department of Justice task force to investigate fraud4
|
Mortgage Reform
-
Mandated standardized Homeowner Obligation Made Explicit score to rate
mortgages
-
STOP FRAUD Act to fight mortgage fraud
|
|
Health Care
|
Cost
Reduction:
-
Reimportation of drugs
-
Faster generic introduction
-
Coordinated care
-
Deployment of information technology
-
Tort reform to protect doctors who follow clinical guidelines
-
Transparency about treatment options, quality, and costs
Health Insurance:
-
Lower prices through competition and ability to purchase insurance
across state lines
-
Establish refundable tax credit of $2,500 per individual for insurance
and include employer sponsored health insurance premiums as taxable
income
|
Cost Reduction:
-
Reimportation of drugs
-
Increased use of generics
-
Government right to negotiate with drug companies
-
Force insurers to pay portion of premiums for patient care
-
Deployment of information technology
-
Transparency about treatment options, quality, and costs
Health Insurance:
-
Mandate coverage for children
-
Establish national health plan for those who wish to purchase
-
Establish National Health Insurance Exchange to help individuals buy
private plans
-
Employers with no meaningful coverage must contribute to NHIE5
|
Note: All
information for McCain was taken from: “Jobs for America: The McCain Economic
Plan” and all information for Obama was taken from: “Keeping America’s Promise:
Strengthening the Middle Class” except where noted.
1
“Barack Obama’s Emergency Economic Plan” 2008
2
Burman et al. 2008
3
“Barack Obama’s Plan for Restoring Fiscal Discipline” 2008
4
Sahadi 2008
5
“Barack Obama’s Plan for a Healthy America” 2008
[1] For a more
thorough discussion of behavioral economics and the policies the school
of thought might put forth see the book by Thaler and Sunstein entitled
“Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness”.
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