The consensus
forecast among Wall Street economists is that GDP will expand
by 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent
during 1999. This range is higher than what was
originally forecasted at
the beginning of the year. Improvements in the world
economic situation and
in the overall health of the U.S. economy prompted the
upward revision.
Inflation is forecasted to run at about 1.9 percent for 1999
compared to 1.6 percent
in 1998. Interest rates are expected to decline slightly
over the course of the
year. Short-term U.S. Treasury Bills are forecasted to
yield 4.2 percent and the
bellwether 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond is forecasted to
be at 5.1 percent by year-end.
What evidence is there that
the U.S. economy is performing well and will most likely continue to do
so for the remainder of the year? The following information
will highlight certain
aspects of the economy and its meaning to area residents.
The housing outlook, although
cooling somewhat from the torrid pace of last year, remains robust.
Also, vehicle sales for U.S. manufacturers are surging. Housing and vehicles represent
items with the highest dollar value that households
purchase. Rising
income levels and attractive interest rates have served as the
catalyst for the consumption
of these goods.
Income growth across the
nation has been quite substantial. For example, in
Wisconsin, personal income,
i.e., wages, interest, rents, and profits accruing to
households, grew by a very
healthy 6 percent in 1998. Moreover, the government reports that
the median income for a family of four rose from $48,200 to $51,200
in Wisconsin over the past
year.
The growth in the economy
has also had an unexpected positive impact on the
nation's social security
system. Rising income levels have added approximately 2 more
years of solvency to the system; i.e., to the year 2034. In addtion,
Medicare solvency has been
improved by about 7 years and will be in the black
until the year 2015.
Corporate profits for the
majority of industries in 1st Quarter 1999 have exceeded expectations. However,
some industries like steel, aircraft, and paper are still suffering from the Asian
recession. The good new is that the worse part of the Asian crisis may be behind
us. This bodes well for companies affected by the
situation and for the economy
in general.
The stock market indices
are now at record levels. The Federal Reserve
estimates that over the
last 16 years nearly $10 trillion of wealth has been
created by the upward movement
in the markets. Why are the financial markets
and economy performing
so well?
There are many factors that
can be cited as playing a role in the growth. A few of the more important
factors are as follows: Corporate restructuring over the past
20 years has greatly increased
the competitiveness of U.S. businesses. This
has helped to fuel profits.
The end of the cold war has allowed the U.S. to
redirect resources toward
peacetime activities and problems. The baby boom
generation, all 79 million
of them, are entering their prime earning years. Their
savings for retirement
has created a tremendous inflow in the nation's capital
markets, which, in turn,
has greatly lowered the cost of raising capital for
corporations. The
growth and potential of information technology is now hitting
our economy full force.
Our economy is quite literally, being transformed. For
example, it is estimated
that 50 percent of business spending on new equipment is information technology
based. Further, from 1992-1998, 33 percent of all GDP growth was
accounted for by business investment.
Also playing a key role
in the economy has been the movement to deregulate the economy. This
movement started under the Carter administration and has
continued through the Reagan,
Bush, and Clinton administrations. Deregulation
has helped many industries
to consolidate and modernize, thus becoming more
competitive. Lastly,
the important role of the Federal Reserve cannot be ignored. The
Fed's fight and continued vigilance against inflation has helped to create
low
interest rates and a stable
economic environment. Thus, many factors have
come together to create
this robust economic situation which we now enjoy. |