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The
national economy had a stronger than expected First Quarter. Real Gross Domestic
Product grew by an estimated 4.0 percent since last year. Our nation's factories
are humming as production has expanded by nearly 6.0 percent from a year ago.
Short‑term interest rates rose in response to tighter credit conditions, and
inflation appears to be still in check rising by just 2.8 percent over the
period.
The labor
markets for the most part continue to tighten in the state and nation. As a
result, unemployment rates have continued to trend downward in most areas. For
many years now, Wisconsin's
unemployment rate has been below that of the nation. This quarter is no
exception and shows that Wisconsin has a rate of 4.2 percent compared to the
national mark of 5.5 percent.
Employment
growth throughout the area was modest. Central Wisconsin's total employment rose
by approximately 1,100 positions, or just 0.9 percent over the year. After over
a decade worth of expansion, our labor markets are becoming strained. The state,
for example, will most likely produce smaller percentage gains in employment
than the nation in the years ahead because of the constraint. Thus, job creation
may not be a good way to judge the strength of the economy in the future because
of the developing situation in the labor markets.
Industrial
sector employment throughout the region did better than the total employment
estimates. Every category of employment exceeded last yea's tally. Job creation
in these sectors were as follows. Services, trade, and manufacturing added
1,400, 1,200, and 400 jobs respectively. Construction and government lagged the
others by producing 100 positions each.
Long‑term
trends in manufacturing, services, trade, construction, and government payrolls
indicate that much growth has taken place in the three‑county region of Central
Wisconsin. Modest increases have a way of compounding into large changes with
the passage of time. The data for these sectors clearly shows this to be the
case in our area.
The
optimism expressed by regional business executives was shaken in First Quarter.
Our survey was taken at about the same time the Federal Reserve raised a key
short‑term interest rate. This along with the resultant volatility displayed on
Wan Street influenced their assessment of recent economic changes at the
national and local levels. Further, 1 believe this caused regional business
leaders to downgrade the immediate economic situation. However, the group
remains upbeat concerning future activity. As a side note, at the time of this
report the Dow Jones Industrial Average h rebounded to a near record level.
The
Marshfield‑Wood county economy experienced a period of relatively s economic
activity. The unemployment rate rose and total employment crept forward b a
small percentage. The best indicators for this period, however, were the
Industry sector payroll figures and the financial statistics for the area.
Moreover, help wanted advertising remained at an elevated level. |