Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Overview
1st Quarter 1997

 

The national economy had a stronger than expected First Quarter. Real Gross Domestic Product grew by an estimated 4.0 percent since last year. Our nation's factories are humming as production has expanded by nearly 6.0 percent from a year ago. Short‑term interest rates rose in response to tighter credit conditions, and inflation appears to be still in check rising by just 2.8 percent over the period. 

The labor markets for the most part continue to tighten in the state and nation. As a result, unemployment rates have continued to trend downward in most areas. For many years now, Wisconsin's unemployment rate has been below that of the nation. This quarter is no exception and shows that Wisconsin has a rate of 4.2 percent compared to the national mark of 5.5 percent. 

Employment growth throughout the area was modest. Central Wisconsin's total employment rose by approximately 1,100 positions, or just 0.9 percent over the year. After over a decade worth of expansion, our labor markets are becoming strained. The state, for example, will most likely produce smaller percentage gains in employment than the nation in the years ahead because of the constraint. Thus, job creation may not be a good way to judge the strength of the economy in the future because of the developing situation in the labor markets. 

Industrial sector employment throughout the region did better than the total employment estimates. Every category of employment exceeded last yea's tally. Job creation in these sectors were as follows. Services, trade, and manufacturing added 1,400, 1,200, and 400 jobs respectively. Construction and government lagged the others by producing 100 positions each. 

Long‑term trends in manufacturing, services, trade, construction, and government payrolls indicate that much growth has taken place in the three‑county region of Central Wisconsin. Modest increases have a way of compounding into large changes with the passage of time. The data for these sectors clearly shows this to be the case in our area. 

The optimism expressed by regional business executives was shaken in First Quarter. Our survey was taken at about the same time the Federal Reserve raised a key short‑term interest rate. This along with the resultant volatility displayed on Wan Street influenced their assessment of recent economic changes at the national and local levels. Further, 1 believe this caused regional business leaders to downgrade the immediate economic situation. However, the group remains upbeat concerning future activity. As a side note, at the time of this report the Dow Jones Industrial Average h rebounded to a near record level. 

The Marshfield‑Wood county economy experienced a period of relatively s economic activity. The unemployment rate rose and total employment crept forward b a small percentage. The best indicators for this period, however, were the Industry sector payroll figures and the financial statistics for the area. Moreover, help wanted advertising remained at an elevated level.

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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481