Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14

     Nine months ago the national economy drifted down into a recession. Now the Wausau area economy has finally started to show the effect of that event. The unemployment rate has risen by 1.4 percent from a year ago and now stands at 6.5 percent on an unadjusted basis. Total Employment has dipped by approximately 1.8 percent and nonfarm employment by 0.2 percent from 1991. Other data in this quarterly report also suggest a slowing of the local economy.
 

     Given that the area economy is in the midst of a contraction, it should be remembered that there has been a great deal of economic growth and development in the area over the past decade and virtually all categories of employment are still at near record levels. Thus, the long term trend and not temporary fluctuations in the economy should be of most concern for an area's people. With this in mind, there is little doubt that the economic fundamentals of the region are favorable and suggest that the area will eventually rebound from this temporary setback.
 

     Wausau area nonfarm employment is feeling the effects of the national recession. Overall employment fell by approximately 100 positions or a modest 0.2 percent decline from last year (Table 7). The sharpest contractions came in the construction and manufacturing sectors as they lost 900 and 300 positions respectively. Typically manufacturing and construction are the most sensitive to business cycle fluctuations. The service and trade sectors however reached all‑time highs for first quarter. Government employment was unchanged at 6.5 thousand positions. It should be noted that the fall in total nonfarm employment to 51.5 thousand still represents a sizeable gain for the area when compared to five years ago. At that time nonfarm employment stood at just 43,900 for first quarter. Thus there has been a net gain of 17.3 percent over the five year period.

     Retailers in the Wausau area tell the CWERB that store traffic and sales are better than one year ago. Moreover, they feel that expected sales and store traffic three months from now will be higher than during the same period in 1990. The results in Table 8 indicate that retail activity remains brisk even in the face of a slowing local economy. Here too, it should not be forgotten that the local economy has been on an upward swing for the better part of the last decade and retail activity has managed to do quite well. It will be interesting to see if this trend is broken in the months ahead.
 

     As evidenced in Table 9, the help wanted advertising index fell from 190 to 138, a 27 percent decline since March 1990. Similarly the U.S. index declined by 31.9 percent. For Wausau help wanted advertising decreased during six of the last seven quarters when compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This barometer of local labor market conditions suggests that the labor market has been softening. Data presented elsewhere in the report confirms this conclusion.
 

     Table 10 and Table 11 present data on local family financial distress. The number of new applications for public assistance rose by an average of 1 per month or 4.8 percent, while the total caseload went down on a monthly average basis to 93 from a level of 106 in 1990. Table 11 presents another dimension of financial distress, unemployment claims data. The weekly average number of unemployment claims filed rose from 367 to 564, a 53.7 percent increase. Further, total claims jumped from 2998 to 4330, or 44.4 percent from first quarter 1990. Once again this quarter's data suggest that the national recession is being felt here locally.

     Residential construction after a year or more of robust growth has fallen off from last year (Table 12). Each category of activity: residential permits issued, the estimated value of new construction, the number of units, residential alteration permits issued, and the estimated value of residential alterations fell by approximately 40 percent to 50 percent. Given that the amount of residential construction has been brisk over the past several years, the decline is not surprising since at some point the supply in housing will come close to satisfying the demand. This fact and the leveling off of the local economy have all played a part in this quarter's results.

     Table 13 shows that the number of nonresidential construction permits and their estimated values were higher than a year ago during first quarter. Alteration permits and the value of nonresidential alterations were below last year's marks. Overall, first quarter 1991 was somewhat below the historic norms for these kinds of activities.

     The area's financial position is gauged by the results in Table 14. Bank deposits increased locally by at a slower rate than had been seen in prior periods. This suggests a cooling of the economy. Bank lending, another aspect of the local economy, was higher by $27.5 million or 5.4 percent. This increase was more in line with results for the past several years and suggests that consumers and businesses are still demanding credit at a rate which is consistent with past norms to finance long‑term purchases.