The Wausau - Marathon County economy has grown substantially since last year. Furthermore, the prognosis is that the expansion will continue into next quarter. The unemployment rate declined by seven tenths of a percent to the lowest March level since the recession of the early 1980s. Total employment is at a post recession high. nonfarm employment improved in every sector, except one. The expansion also was evident in the growth of the labor force and in the financial statistics for the area. Leading indicators, such as the business confidence index, retailer confidence index, help wanted advertising, construction data and bank deposits all support the contention 1at local expansion should continue into next quarter. Key industry groups are expected to have greater profitability in 1987, with perhaps the exception of the paper products industry. However, developments at the national and international level must e taken into account in any long-range forecast. Re-emerging inflation, rising interest rates, and the trade deficit are generating a potentially volatile situation which creates uncertainty for the national and regional economies.

     Table 7 contains employment data for the Wausau - Marathon County area. A major improvement occurred in the nonfarm employment sector. There are 44.7 thousand people now on Marathon County payrolls compared to 43.2 thousand a year ~o. This represents a 3.5 percent increase. Manufacturing employment, at 12.1 thousand, represents the highest level ever observed by the CWERB for the month of larch. Record performances can also be claimed for the service, trade, and construction sectors. Only government employment displayed contraction from last year. These data strongly suggest that the Marathon County area experienced a significant surge in economic activity. Moreover, the favorable business variables presented in the fourth quarter report have had an impact on Wausau. However, a word of caution is in order. The very mild winter weather may have stimulated activities such as seasonal hiring to commence earlier than in previous years. The VERB will pay close attention to second quarter data in order to determine the .pact of the early spring on the economy.

     Retailer confidence is presented in Table 8. Business leaders indicate that sales and )re traffic have increased from last year's levels. This favorable news complements ~e information presented earlier in the report. The outlook for retail activity is a positive one. Retail managers remain "somewhat optimistic" in the way they assess the outlook for trade in the coming quarter. This positive sign indicates that the local economy still possesses the ability and attributes necessary to continue the present expansion.

     The help wanted advertising index of the CWERB is displayed in Table 9. The index is constructed in order to provide insight into the direction of the Wausau area or demand. As has been the case during the past year, the index remains relatively strong and foretells increases in employment for the area. This indicator of future activity stands 44 points above the base year level. In other words, 44 percent more IS are being advertised now than in March of 1980. To place this in perspective, in March 1984 the index stood at a meager 73.8.

     Table 10 reports the number of public assistance claims in Marathon County. se numbers include claims for aid for dependent children, medical assistance, food, stamps, and for general assistance. The data shows that the total caseload and new applications have increased from a year ago. However, the number of individuals now in the labor force has swelled by 3,200 since last year. The improved economic conditions have induced discouraged workers to re-enter the labor force. Thus, it is likely that the reported increase in the figures merely reflects the fact that the economy now has a larger labor pool.