The Stevens Point area experienced improvement in economic conditions during fourth quarter 1986. The unemployment rate has stabilized. Total employment increased by 2.2070 over that of last year. The negative employment shocks associated with Soo Line and Mid State Airlines will soon play themselves out as the local economy adjusts itself. Retailer confidence while down somewhat from last quarter remains essentially optimistic. Labor demand continues to be stronger this year than last which will translate into future jobs. Residential and nonresidential construction have shown signs of responding to the relatively lower interest rates. Financial conditions show signs of continued vigor. The outlook for many of the local industries is quite bright for 1987. Thus it appears that sustained expansion in the local economy is to be expected.

     Portage County employment by sector is displayed in Table 7. Manufacturing employment remained unchanged from a year ago. This is an improvement over last quarter's contraction. Services when compared to fourth quarter experienced a decline. Weakness in this sector can primarily be traced to the transportation component, 510 fewer people are employed in the transportation sector than a year ago. Trade continues to show growth for the third consecutive quarter. A very respectable expansion of 3.8% was recorded. Also, construction payrolls grew by 20 more positions. Government employment increased by 1000 positions or 19.2% from last year. This large amount of growth is maybe misleading. Reasons for the expansion are as follows. First, snow removal and park maintenance hiring; second, CESA program employing youth for clean-up purposes; and third, general relief, money for work services. Therefore this gain in government employment may be temporary in nature.

     Table 8 gives the retailer confidence index for Stevens Point. The responses uniformly tend to be less optimistic than in September. However, for each question asked the response level fell into the "mildly better" range. Locally, sales and store traffic are expected to improve.

     The help wanted advertising index is presented in Table 9. As can be seen the index stands 47 points higher than in December 1985. This is the fourth consecutive quarter that the index has stood above last year's levels. Thus one can say that the local employment picture is strengthening after the occurrence of several unfortunate shocks to the local economy.

     As of first quarter 1986, public assistance figures are being compiled on a county­ wide basis (Table 10). The change in the data base may tend to overstate the number of claims relative to previous quarters, but should provide a more precise picture of future conditions in the county.

     Table 11 presents unemployment claims in Stevens Point. The last quarter of 1986 saw claims rise by 114 cases or 4.6% from last year. A decrease in unemployment claims filed was reported for second quarter. However, this decrease now appears to be attributable to less accessibility and the increase in the number of weeks necessary to qualify; i.e. third and fourth quarter results have been in the opposite direction. Claimants have adjusted to the new conditions and now we are seeing a more accurate picture of local conditions.

     In order to provide a more precise portrayal of residential construction in the area, construction data for the outlying areas of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and the Town of Plover have been incorporated into Table 12. When the data is combined with the 1985 and 1986 Stevens Point. Village of Plover numbers, significant increases are registered in all but one category. Residential permits, estimated value of new homes, residential alteration permits, and estimated value of residential alterations increased substantially. The strength exhibited in this leading ecbnomic indicator will create a ripple effect in the local economy and provide impetus toward future growth.

     Nonresidential construction is presented in Table 13. Strength is evident in the estimated value of new structures, the number of business permits, and estimated value of business alterations. Once again construction activity is a leading economic indicator which stimulates the local economy. The largest projects undertaken during the fourth quarter were by the COPPS corporation with its expansion on Church Street, a software company, and a veterinary clinic.

     Table 14 presents the financial statistics for Portage County. Bank deposits have been expanding since fourth quarter 1985 by $12 million or a very respectable 4.8070. Bank loans were up by a significant 7.0% or $10 million compared to a year ago. It should be noted that the bank loan figures are understated by an amount equal to the dollar amount of loans resold in the after market. For example, during fourth quarter 1986, over $2.8 million worth of this activity took place. This information supports the construction data presented earlier.