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The
counties in central Wisconsin experienced improvement in their respective
economies. Most indicators were
positive for the communities in our area.
Even with an expanding labor force, the unemployment rates are trending
lower in the region. Total
employment, which is based up on a survey of households, showed healthy
increases taking place in regional payrolls.
However, nonfarm employment, which is derived from a survey of
employers, showed that employment was mixed and varied greatly from sector to
sector.
Unemployment
rates were down in all reporting areas compared to a year ago (Table
2). The respective unemployment rates for Marathon, Portage, and
Wood fell to 3.8 percent, 4.0 percent, and 5.1 percent during fourth quarter
2003. The labor force weighted
unemployment rate for central Wisconsin contracted from 4.7 percent to 4.2
percent over the same period. Similarly
the unemployment rate for the state declined from 5.3 percent to 4.8 percent.
Lastly, the national unemployment rate is lower than it was in December
2002.
Employment
estimates based on a survey of households suggests that the number of people
employed in the region has grown at a very respectable rate (Table
3). Employment estimates for
Marathon, Portage, and Wood are all above last year's marks.
The respective growth rates for their payrolls were 2.8 percent for
Marathon, 3.5 percent for Portage, and 3.7 percent for Wood.
Wisconsin was estimated to have added 2.7 percent to its total
employment, and U.S. total employment was said to have expanded 1.4 percent in
the year over comparison.
Another
method used to estimate employment change is the survey of business
establishment payrolls. The
reported change in business payrolls was a scant 0.5 percent increase for
central Wisconsin. Nonfarm
sectors experiencing an increase were trade, education and health services,
leisure and hospitality, and government.
Declining sectors include construction and natural resources,
manufacturing, transportation and utilities, and financial activities.
Information and business services payrolls were unchanged in our
December to December comparison.
The
graphs 5A and 5B present interesting
information on how the region has performed over the past five years.
The seasonal pattern of the unemployment rate is clearly evident in 5A.
In addition, the trend in total employment is presented in 5B.
The reader can easily discern that 2001 was a peak period of employment
and 2002 was a trough or low point associated with the past recession.
The
results of the CWERB survey of regional business executives is given in Table
6. This group was generally
more optimistic this quarter compared to last in their assessment of economic
conditions. When asked about
recent changes at the national level they indicated that matters appeared to
be definitely improving. However,
recent changes in the local economy, while judged positive, were thought to be
less positive than the change at the national level.
When this group was asked to forecast the direction of the economy,
they felt that the national situation would most likely improve, and the local
economy and their industry would also expand.
Thus, the overall assessment can be summarized by saying that this
group believes that the economy has improved and will continue to do so in
2004.
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