The national recession has reached Central Wisconsin. Almost all of the data presented in this section of the report suggests that we are being affected by the slowdown of the national economy. This is clearly evident in the unemployment rates, and the employment numbers. This section of the report underscores the interconnectedness of the nation's economy with that of Central Wisconsin.

     The unemployment rates in our reporting areas have risen by a substantial degree (Table 2). The lone exception to that statement is Wood County. It should be pointed out that while the unemployment rates have gone up from last year they are still at low levels when compared to historic norms. The unemployment rates in both Portage and Marathon Counties rose to 3.5 percent. Wood County's unemployment rate, which is unchanged from a year ago, stands at 3.9 percent. The state of Wisconsin registered an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, and the U.S. posted a 5.4 percent rate. Both marks represent increases from a year ago.

     Total employment was also lower throughout the reporting areas (Table 3). Once again, the exception is Wood County where employment rose by 0.5 percent from a year ago. Portage and Marathon saw their respective payrolls drop by 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent. For Central Wisconsin total employment is estimated to have declined from 148.9 thousand to 148.5, or 0.3 percent from a year ago. Wisconsin also experienced a decline in employment. The state's employment figure contracted by 0.2 percent over the past twelve months. Meanwhile, the U.S. experienced an even greater decline in employment. As a matter of record the U.S. lost 1.4 percent of its employment over the year.

     Several Central Wisconsin industrial sectors experienced declines in employment (Table 4). Manufacturing was hardest hit losing 4.0 percent, or 1,400 jobs from its total of a year ago. Trade was also hard hit by the contraction in economic activity. Trade employment fell by 2.2 percent and lost 600 jobs. Better news comes from the services, construction, and government sectors. Employment is estimated to have expanded by 2.6 percent, 3.3 percent, and 1.6 percent respectively. In total, industrial sector employment contracted by about   0.2 percent in our year over comparison.

     An important measure of economic activity is sales tax collections (Table 5). For Portage County the Fourth Quarter collections are estimated to have declined from $1.03 million to $995 thousand, a fall of about 3.5 percent from a year ago. Meanwhile, Marathon County's sales tax collections are estimated to have grown from $2.2 million to $2.3 million, or about 7 percent from Fourth Quarter 2000. Thus, Marathon's retail sector has held up remarkably well in light of the recession.

     Figure 5A and Figure 5B present the trends in Central Wisconsin industrial sector employment. Manufacturing over the last five years has risen from about 46 thousand to 55 thousand. Trade has also increased rising from around 30 thousand to 35 thousand over the same period. Manufacturing has remained virtually unchanged climbing from 34.0 to 35.0 thousand. Government employment has stayed at about 18.0 thousand and thus has exhibited almost no growth over the past five years. Lastly construction payrolls have grown slightly increasing from about 5.5 thousand to about 6.1 thousand since 1997.

     Every quarter the CWERB surveys regional business executives to assess their thoughts on the economy (Table 6). As the reader might imagine this group was very negative in their assessment of recent changes in the national and local economies. The marks for the national and local economies were the lowest recorded in over 15 years of the survey. However, and more importantly this group believes that there will be a significant upturn in activity in the quarters ahead. Of note is the fact that the least amount of optimism expressed by this group was for the expected change in their industry. This of course could have economic ramifications for the region.

3.5%

3.5%

3.9%

3.7%

+45.9

-0.6

-0.5

+0.5

-4.0

-4.2

-3.1

-2.2

6.1

6.3

+3.3

18.8

+1.6

$1,031.7

-3.5

$2,198.7

+7.0

September 2001

43

27

62