|
The
economic indicators for the Wausau-Marathon County area were mixed.
A number of the indicators are flashing warning signs that suggest the
economy may be cooling.
However, other indicators say that the economy is still moving forward at
a decent rate.
Only time will tell if the local and national economies slip into
recession, or if they experience a mild slow down during the first part of 2001.
Marathon
County employment by major industrial sector in Table 7 shows that manufacturing
and construction payrolls have contracted by 1.1 and 3.0 percent since Fourth
Quarter 1999. Better
news comes from the less cyclic services sector where employment has grown by
7.2 percent. Trade
employment growth is still holding up with a reported gain of 2.8 percent over
the year. Thus,
Marathon County's overall industrial sector employment picture is somewhat
better than the rest of the region.
The
solid growth in sales tax collections certainly helps to explain the local
merchants assessment of retail activity
(Table
8).
Total sales and store traffic are both judged to have been markedly
better than last year.
Moreover, our panel of merchants feels that sales and store traffic will
be higher in First Quarter 2001.
Given the likely slow down in economic activity, it will be interesting
to see if this forecast is actually achieved.
Help
wanted advertising in the area took a rather large plunge
(Table
9).
This barometer of labor market conditions fell from 198 to 159, a decline
of 19.6 percent from a year ago.
Likewise, the national help wanted advertising index contracted by 7.0
percent. The
decline in the index signals that employers hiring plans are not nearly as
strong as what they were twelve months ago.
Unemployment
claim data for the county are presented on a weekly average basis
(Table
10).
New claims have risen from 268 to 456 or by 70.1 percent from Fourth
Quarter 1999. Total
claims have also risen sharply, climbing from 1,121 to 1,653 or by 46.2 percent.
It is quite clear that some area employers are reducing payrolls in
response to weak demand.
Low
long-term interest rates have helped to this point to keep the residential
construction scene moving forward
(Table
11).
The number of permits issued increased by 25 percent and the estimated
value of these new homes climbed by 63 percent.
The number of housing units went up by 116 percent during the period.
Also, the number of alteration permits and their estimated value climbed
17.4 percent over the year.
The
nonresidential construction figures are given in Table 12.
Here, too, we see that activity has been brisk.
There were 13 projects with an estimated value of $12.9 million during
the October to December period.
The number of alteration permits was a healthy 49 and the value of the
alterations was pegged at $6.3 million.
Percentage changes are not given for nonresidential construction because
it is such a volatility activity.
Major construction projects include a grocery store, a youth facility, a
neuro science facility, and a major addition to a window manufacturer.
Financial
statistics for Wausau are listed in Table 13.
The amount of bank deposits rose since 1999 from $2.05 billion to $2.13
billion, a gain of about 4.0 percent.
Bank lending was also higher for the quarter.
Bank loans rose from $1.87 billion to $2.02 billion or by approximately
8.0 percent. |
