The national economy continues to grow at a snail's pace. For six consecutive quarters the real GDP of the nation has been positive, with the most recent quarter registering a stronger than expected amount of growth. However, this level of performance has been well below the U.S. historic trend of three percent per year growth. Further, when coming out of a recession, the U.S. has typically seen spurts of economic activity in the five to six percent range. A major cause of the sluggishness can be traced to slackening export activity. The trade deficit widened dramatically to nine billion in the month of September. This is the largest gap in five years. If you consider that the widening trade gap resulted primarily from a 6.1 percent fall in exports, and that 70 percent of the growth in the national economy over the last three years has come from exporting, it takes little imagination to understand that this represents a major drag on our economy. The reason, of course, for the decline in exports is that most of the world is mired in recession. 

     With regard to the future, a panel of 52 blue chip economists was used to produce a consensus forecast for the economy in 1993. This group has revised its GDP growth estimates downward from 3 percent to 2.7 percent in light of the multitude of layoffs and restructurings announced in the corporate sector. Falling consumer confidence was also cited as a contributing factor in the lower growth estimates. 

     How has Wisconsin been doing during this period of outright recession in some regions and slow growth for the nation as a whole? Wisconsin has exceeded and most likely will continue to outpace the nation in economic performance. According to the Northeast‑Midwest Institute, Wisconsin has gained nearly 45,000 jobs over the last two years. A breakdown shows that 75 percent of the new jobs fell into the service sector. 11,600 were created in the government sector, finance, insurance, and real estate was responsible for 6300; construction increased by 5700; and transportation, communication, and utilities added 100. Manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade contracted by 11,000 and 1700 respectively. In contrast, other states actually lost jobs during the same period. For example, California lost 630,000 jobs, New York 527,000, New Jersey 271,000, and Pennsylvania 159,000. In the Midwest, Minnesota gained 26,000 jobs, but Ohio and Michigan have lost 130,000 and 106,000, respectively over the past two years. Moreover, Kemper Securities recently ranked Wisconsin as the 13th strongest economy in the nation. This assessment was based on an employment growth, home sales, mortgage delinquencies, mortgage foreclosures, and the unemployment rate. Over the July 1991 to July 1992 time period Wisconsin ranked third in the nation in terms of the number of nonfarm jobs created. Another indicator of the health of the economy is that Wisconsin income tax collections from withholding are up 9.4 percent from September of last year and are running 13 percent above the comparable period last year for the first nine months of 1992. 

     However, there are signs that the burst of springtime activity in Wisconsin has abated. The state unemployment rate has climbed for the last five consecutive months, new car sales in the state will probably hit a decade low in 1992, business failures are running 60 percent above last year, and consumer confidence levels, as measured by Sindlinger & Co., have fallen because of concerns over current income and job stability. Thus, according UW‑Madison economist Don Nichols the national and international situations are having an ever more pronounced impact on the Wisconsin economy. Further, it is most likely that the differential in economic performance will close between Wisconsin and the nation. But Wisconsin should still continue to outperform the nation because of factors such as: the lack of financial excesses, the absence of a significant military dependent industrial structure, a better than average workforce, and an excellent natural resource base. These advantages also clearly pertain to and operate on the economic situation here in Central Wisconsin.