The Wausau area economic indicators for third quarter 1991 show that the local economy has expanded its payrolls. Total nonfarm employment grew by 1700 or 3.2 percent over the past twelve months. However, the unemployment rate, while still low from a historic standpoint, rose from 4.4 to 4.9 percent over the year, and the number of initial unemployment claims grew by 80 on a weekly average basis, an increase of 51 percent. Further, local lending is virtually unchanged from last year:
 

     In sum, it appears that the local economy is holding its own during this period of economic uncertainty, unlike New England and California. But the data also show that there is some reason for concern. If the national economy slips back into recession, as many analysts predict, this will be very bad new for our area because the effects of the national downturn, already being felt to some extent, will be magnified and become more pronounced.
 

     Marathon County nonfarm employment expanded even though the United States is in recession. The only negative news coming from nonfarm total employment in Table 7 was from the manufacturing sector. Employment is estimated to have declined by about 100 jobs or 0.7 percent. In contrast, services, trade, and construction established all‑time record highs. Government employment, while not setting a record, grew by 3.2 percent from last year. In sum employment in the area continues to expand and we see that the number of people employed in nonfarm employment activities increased from 52.6 thousand to 54.3 thousand over the course of the year, a 3.2 percent gain.

     Retailers tell us in Table 8 that store traffic and sales compared to the previous year are better. However, the readings for September are slightly lower than June's for these categories. This group has the same level of confidence as last report when asked about future store traffic and sales. These responses suggest that local merchants believe that the local economy will be at approximately the same level of activity as last year. Thus, local retailers do not foresee a major slump in store activity. Please note that this group historically tends to have a somewhat optimistic outlook.

     The help wanted advertising index in Table 9 shows that there are fewer jobs being advertised than a year ago. The index fell by nearly 30 percent from September 1990. A look at the historic record indicates that help wanted advertising in the local area for third quarter has been below the corresponding period of a year earlier eight out of the last ten quarters. This suggests that job advertising has been on a downward trend. On the positive side, advertising still remains 23 percent higher than in third quarter 1980. At the national level help wanted advertising is now below the 1967 mark, a reflection no doubt of the recession.

     Local family financial distress is presented in Table 10 and Table 11. Public assistance claims are presented on a monthly average basis. The average number of new applications for third quarter 1991 was 21, an increase of 4 from third quarter 1990 or 23.5 percent. Likewise, the total average caseload rose from 74 to 88, an 18.9 percent increase. Initial unemployment claims, Table 11, recorded a sharp increase of 51 percent, rising from 156 to 236. Similarly, total unemployment claims rose from 1010 to 1515, a 50 percent surge in family distress. The data clearly suggest that some local residents are experiencing financial difficulty. As previously mentioned, it is quite possible for the majority of individuals to do well even during a recession; however, the impact on the few who lose their jobs, can be economically devastating.
 

     Table 12 presents the residential construction figures for the greater Wausau area. The July‑September 1991 period is the strongest third quarter on record for construction. Good news is reported in every category except for the estimated value of residential alterations. The biggest gain came in the number of housing units which rose by 55 percent over last year. Positive statements can also be made concerning the estimated value of new homes, up 11.5 percent; residential permits issued, up by 14.7 percent; and the number of residential alteration permits issued also up 11.5 percent. Construction activity is important to the economy because besides providing shelter, it creates income and a wide variety of jobs due to the spin‑off effects. Table 13 gives nonresidential construction for the Wausau area. This activity is reported without percentage change figures because of its volatile character. Large, singular projects can cause the figures to fluctuate wildly from period to period. For third quarter 1991 the number of new permits issued stood at 12 and the estimated value at $2,629,400. Alteration activity was at 36 permits issued with an estimated value of $1,175,200.

     Financial statistics for the local area are displayed in Table 14. Our sample shows that deposits, a measure of local liquidity and income growth, expanded by approximately $43 million or 6.4 percent. Thus even when this total is adjusted for inflation, there has been growth in this measure of the economy. However, lending in the local area only rose by $2 million dollars or a scant 0.4 percent. If adjusted for inflation the third quarter figure for loans would fall below last year's level of lending. Thus, in real terms lending has contracted. It remains to be seen if this was caused by tighter lending practices on the part of local financial institutions and/or by the unwillingness of individuals and firms to borrow funds resulting from economic uncertainty surrounding the state of the national economy. In either case, there may be reason for concern.