The Stevens Point area economy has experienced
approximately three years of solid growth. However, the data for 3rd quarter
give rise for concern. A number of the local economic indicators suggest
that growth has slowed. It is too early to tell if this is just a one
quarter phenomenon or the beginning of a longer trend. As noted in earlier
reports, the national economy exerts a tremendous influence over the local
economy. Information concerning the
United States economy has indicated that
job growth has been slowing with some sectors reporting actual declines,
e.g. manufacturing. Therefore, even though there are a number of positive
developments occurring locally, such as the expansions at Woodward Governor
and Consolidated Papers, at First Financial and the newly proposed shopping
center on Highway 10, it would be prudent to keep a close watch on the
national situation.
Portage
County
nonfarm employment was generally lower than a year ago. (Table
7) Total nonfarm employment was approximately 2.0 percent or 520
positions lower than in 3rd quarter 1988. One bright spot for the local
economy is the manufacturing sector, where nearly 500 more people are
employed. The 5700 figure represent an alltime high for this category.
Service, trade, and government totals declined. According to state
estimates, the trade sector was hardest hit with a decline of approximately
600 positions. The CWERB has since learned that the trade employment figures
for 1989 for Portage County
were underestimated and will most likely be revised upwards in the months
ahead. Furthermore, the CWERB believes that the reported decrease in
government employment is simply due to timing differences in teacher
employment.
The retailer confidence survey shows that store sales and traffic were
judged by local merchants to be somewhat better and unchanged respectively.
(Table 8) The index values recorded for sales and
traffic are the lowest for this time of year since the CWERB began
conducting the poll. The same conclusion can be drawn from the survey
results for expected sales and store traffic. Retailers are expressing less
confidence than in comparable quarters in the past.
The
help wanted advertising index indicates that there are approximately 8
percent fewer jobs appearing in the local newspaper. This parallels an 8
percent decline in the national index. Thus, while the number of new jobs
may increase, the rate of expansion is likely to slow. It is important to
note, however, that even though the help wanted advertising index has
declined for two consecutive quarters, it still remains a historically
respectable level.
Tables 10 and 11 give valuable information on local
family financial distress. Although public assistance claims declined by
nearly 3.3 percent from last year the 118 reading is identical to 3rd
quarter 1987. However, some progress has been made in the reduction of the
total caseload. A slight decline was registered for this category for this
year, but compared to 3rd quarter 1987, it is clear that much progress has
been made in reducing the total caseload. Unemployment claims data show that
new and total claims are higher than one year ago. Initial claims were up
4.3 percent and total claims 24.6 percent. In sum both tables indicate that
the local economy has softened somewhat during 3rd quarter 1989.
Residential construction is a precursor of broader economic activity.
Table 12 presents the results for 3rd quarter 1989.
Permits issued, the value of new homes, and the number of units were all
sharply lower than a year ago. Only the number of residential alteration
permits and the value of residential alterations were higher. Overall, the
3rd quarter residential construction numbers were the lowest since the
recessionary years of the early 1980s. Nonresidential construction in
Table 13 shows mixed results as is so often the case
due to the singular nature of business investment.
