Real Gross National Product grew by 2.9 percent over the past year. (See Table 1.) However, from June to September the rate fell to 2.5 percent. Furthermore, this modest percentage may be somewhat exaggerated due to a late surge in consumer durables purchases, e.g. automobiles. Industrial output in the nation's factories expanded by nearly 2.7 percent. This is another indication that the national economy continued on its record long expansion. To put the situation in perspective, the last recession ended in December 1982. Interest rates are higher than a year ago, but they have been trending downward since spring of this year. A similar pattern exists for inflation. Over the course of the year the general price level increased by 5.1 percent, but during the past three months there is evidence to suggest that inflation slowed to the 2 percent range. The behavior of inflation and interest rates is characteristic of an economy that is cooling down.

     In Central Wisconsin the unemployment rate rose in Marathon and Portage Counties. Only Wood County was able to post a decrease. The Central Wisconsin unemployment rate went up for the second consecutive quarter. Offsetting this development, however, is the fact that total nonfarm employment increased in all three counties. Approximately 3600 more individuals are employed than a year ago. This represents a growth rate for Central Wisconsin of 2.8 percent.

     Nonfarm total employment registered a modest 1.8 percent gain from last year. Services and manufacturing payrolls reached all-time record highs adding 1600 and 700 positions respectively. Only trade and government fell below last year's levels. Overall regional payrolls netted a gain of close to 2000 jobs to bring the area's nonfarm employment to about 115,000.

     Key industry employment grew by nearly 600 people or 2.2 percent. These basic exporters of the region's goods and services are vitally important to the success of the area because they account for approximately 25 percent of total nonfarm employment. Food processing and paper products were the two sectors adding to their payrolls. Lumber and wood products, and the finance, insurance and real estate sectors displayed no growth or a decline. Another important indicator and/or predictor of regional economic performance is the business confidence survey. Regional business persons indicate that recent changes in the economy have been minimal and they expect no great surprises in the months ahead. This group is most optimistic when asked about their particular industries.