The performance of the local economy during the third quarter of 1986 was
disappointing. When the data are contrasted with third quarter 1985, several
areas of weakness become apparent. Evidence to support this contention is as
follows. The level of the unemployment rate has risen, total employment has
dropped 2.7%, nonfarm employment has decreased by 800, unemployment claims
are up by 214, and residential and new nonresidential construction showed a
lack of vigor. However, there are positive indicators present in the local
scene. First, the area unemployment rate is now below that of the nation.
This is a turn around from the second quarter situation. Second, some
strength was also indicated by a stabilizing situation in manufacturing and
continued improvement in trade and government employment. Third, the
retailer confidence index reflects optimism in the local retail sector.
Fourth, the help wanted index for the area stands at an all time high. This
will help the employment situation in the future. Finally, several
encouraging events, such as the new Woodward Governor plant, the expansion
of School Administration Software, COPPS, Joerns, Holiday Inn and the
Furniture and Appliance Mart are giving a boost to the local economy.
Portage
County
employment is presented in Table 7. Nonfarm employment declined 850
positions from last year. Contraction in manufacturing payrolls amounted to
100 jobs or a decline of 2.0% from a year ago. Although the 5000 jobs in
this sector represent an increase of 900 positions over second quarter 1986,
much of this increase can be attributed to seasonal employment in
manufacturing which caused third quarter numbers to rise. Thus, the
necessity of comparing the same time period from year-to-year to control for
seasonality becomes apparent. A very large decrease was recorded in
services. The employment level declined from 7530 to 6400, or a decrease of
roughly 15%. The major cause of this contraction can be traced to the
reduction of activity in the transportation component of this sector. For
example, in September 1985 employment in this sector stood at 1230, whereas
in September 1986 only 500 were employed. In the area of trade a 1.9%
increase was recorded over last year. This is the second consecutive quarter
showing an increase in the trade sector. Thus, evidence is mounting which
suggests that the local trade sector is recovering from dislocations caused
by construction of the CenterPoint Mall. Construction jobs declined by 20
from last year, a decrease of 2.7%. Government employment in
Portage
County expanded for the
third consecutive quarter. For third quarter 1986 a 6.1 % increase or 300
new positions were gained.
Retailer confidence is displayed in Table 8. The index relays the
information that, as a group, retailers believe store sales and traffic are
better than last year. Moreover, in these two categories the index reached
its highest level since the CWERB started conducting the survey. However,
retailers are less optimistic than last quarter about expected sales and
store traffic three months from now. In spite of this, their responses can
still be characterized as positive.
The demand for labor in the Stevens Point area is
measured by the CWERB's help wanted advertising index. (Table 9) The
index stood at 132 as of third quarter. This compares favorably with last
year's level of 101. The 132 level represents the greatest value ever
recorded for September. This will translate into a future increase in jobs
for the area.
As
of first quarter 1986, public assistance figures are being compiled on a
countywide basis. The change in the data base may tend to overstate the number
of claims relative to previous quarters but should provide a more precise
picture of future conditions in the county.
Table 11 presents unemployment claims in
Stevens Point. The third quarter of 1986 saw a 16.7%
increase in claims over last year. The total number increased from 1284 to 1498.
The 214 increase is a reversal of the large decrease recorded in second quarter
when compared to a similar period a year ago. Thus, the decrease recorded last
quarter may have been solely attributable to less accessibility and the increase
in the number of weeks in order to qualify, i.e. claimants have now adjusted to
the new conditions.
The residential construction scene in the
Stevens Point
area continues to demonstrate no significant improvement despite lower interest
rates. (Table 12) This could be in part explained by the negligible increase
in the area's population. The number of housing starts during third quarter 1986
indicates a 38.4% decrease over last year. Three other categories, residential
permits issued, residential alterations, and estimated value of alterations,
showed positive but modest increases.
Table 13 presents a similar picture for nonresidential construction. The number
of permits, the estimated value of new structures, and the number of business
alterations all displayed decreases from last year's levels. Only the estimated
value of business alterations showed improvement with a 513% increase. Additions
to Joerns warehouse and activity at the Holiday Inn accounted for 70% of the
increase.
The financial statistics for
Portage County are presented in
Table 14. Bank
deposits have increased by 4.6% over last year. Bank loans have increased by
4.0%. This would indicate that the local economy is in a slightly more liquid
position.
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