CWERB - Central Wisconsin Third Quarter 1986

The performance of the state, and particularly the region was improved during the third quarter of 1986. Table 2 shows the unemployment rates for the three county area contrasted with last year. In Portage County the unemployment rate increased to 6.40/0 from 5.6%. Unemployment in Marathon County increased slightly from 6.2% to 6.40/0. For Wood County the unemployment rate went from 5.2% to 6.6%, an increase over last year. The large increase in the Wood County unemployment rate was due to the fact that the labor force expanded faster than employment. One explanation for this phenomenon could be the unusually heavy rains this fall which delayed seasonal hiring. For the region as a whole, the unemployment rate rose by 17.9% from last year, i.e. from 5.6% to 6.5%.

While the national unemployment rate declined from 7.1% to 6.8%, a slight decrease of 4.2%, the state recorded an increase. Thus, individually and collectively the counties of Central Wisconsin had lower unemployment rates than the nation, but higher than the state and all recorded increases over one year ago.

Table 3 presents total employment in Central Wisconsin. Total employment in Portage County declined by 2.7% from last year. Marathon .showed better performance by posting an increase in total employment of 2.2%. Wood County registered an increase in employment when contrasted with last year of 5.5%. Thus, Wood County total employment, while not decreasing, has not risen fast enough to offset increasing labor force participation.

Central Wisconsin employment increased from last month. Moreover, employment expanded by a modest 2.1 % from third quarter 1985. Employment at the state level increased by 2.1 % and nationally 9.6%.

Table 4 provides data on nonagricultural employment in the region. Manufacturing employment rose by 1.9% from last year. Trade increased 6.1% from 23,100 to 24,500. Construction also showed improvement by posting an 18.2% increase. On the down side, employment fell by 1.6% in the services sector and 1.4% in the government sector. Thus, nonagricultural employment for the region improved slightly over the last year. Manufacturing employment of 26.5 thousand represents the highest level attained by this sector during the past four quarters. Also the payrolls of trade, which includes retail and wholesale activity, reached the highest level seen during the past year. On the other hand, government employment fell to a new low of 14.3 thousand during the same period.

Table 5 displays employment data for key Central Wisconsin industries. Paper products had a respectable increase of 2.3% during the year, bringing the number of employees to 8.8 thousand. However, lumber and wood products and food processing displayed impressive gains in the number of persons on their respective payrolls. The lumber and wood products sector employment rose by 13.5%, i.e. 4.3 thousand positions. This is the highest level of employment this industry has experienced for the past several quarters. Moreover, food processing led the key industries in job creation with over 800 new slots, an increase of 17.0% over last year. The 5.5 thousand employed in this sector also represent a high mark. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate was the only key industry sector in the region to have a contraction in its payrolls. The reduction of 300 positions from last year represents a 4.10,10 decrease. It should be noted that this quarter's employment figure of 7000 is the same as for second quarter 1986. Thus, employment stability in this key sector is finally being recorded after several periods of contraction.

Table 6 presents the opinions of regional business executives. In general, this group of individuals is almost uniformly less optimistic about economic conditions when contrasted with views expressed in second quarter 1986. National economic conditions are viewed by the groups as being essentially unchanged. This index level is the lowest recorded during the past year. A similar response level was given with regard to recent changes in local economic conditions. When asked about expected changes nationally, locally and in their industries, the executive group did not expect conditions to change. The index level for these categories expresses the most pessimistic view recorded during the past four quarters. For the first time an index level of less than 50 was reported for expected changes in local economic conditions.