The downturn in the national economy is being felt in our local area. However, the impact of the recession is much milder than in some other parts of the country. The unemployment rate in Portage County now stands at 5.6 percent compared to 6.9 percent for the United States. Total employment and nonfarm employment performance continued to outpace the national average by posting gains over the past twelve months. On the down side, the area has experienced a substantial increase in the number of new applications for public assistance, and in both new and total unemployment claims filed pointing to a softer economy than some numbers might suggest.
 

     The farm economy, especially the dairy sector, has been negatively influenced by the decline in milk price supports. This reduction will have the effect of lowering disposable income in our area.

     Table 7 gives Portage County employment by major industrial classification. 1 June 1991 Portage County employment estimates from the state will more than likely be revised later this year. Therefore the CWERB has made an effort to adjust these figures to more accurately reflect the current situation. In our judgment, manufacturing, trade, and government payrolls remain essentially unchanged from a year ago. Service sector employment was up by about 1.8 percent and construction down by 100. Overall, nonfarm employment grew by approximately 0.25 percent over the past twelve months.
 

     Retailers indicate this quarter that store traffic and sales were marginally higher than one year ago (Table 8). Compared to first quarter of this year activity in both categories has improved. This coincides with a rebound in consumer sentiment at the national level after the conclusion of the Gulf War. When local merchants were asked to give a forecast for the next three months, most expected both sales and store traffic to be higher than at the same time last year. By comparing forecasts for second quarter made in March with actual June results, we can see that earlier predictions were a little on the optimistic side.
 

     Table 9 shows the help wanted advertising index for Stevens Point and the nation. Advertising for local jobs fell by approximately 12.5 percent from last year. The decline in the index from 256 to 224 is indicative of a softening labor market. Recent layoffs at a local furniture manufacturer and printing firm are further evidence of this retrenchment. However, it should be pointed out that advertising locally is still 2.24 times greater than in 1980. This is in contrast to the U.S. help wanted advertising index which now stands below the 1967 figure reflecting the national recession.
 

     Table 10 presents public assistance claim data for Portage County. New applications rose from 128 to 143 on a monthly average basis. Conversely, the total caseload fell from an average of 1411 per month to 1371 for a decrease of 2.8 percent. To put matters into historic perspective, during second quarter 1986 the total caseload stood at 1849. This is a 25.9 percent decline over the past five years.
 

     Table 11 shows that recent local layoffs have pushed up the number of unemployment claims filed. For second quarter new claims have risen from an average of 35 per week to 56 or about 60.0 percent. Further, total claims on a weekly average basis have risen from 77 to 114 for a jump of 48.1 percent.

     Residential construction activity continues at a brisk pace in our area
(Table 12). Residential permits issued and the estimated value of new residential construction were 28.6 percent and 60.7 percent higher than last year. The number of housing units under construction rose from 89 to 155, a 74.2 percent increase from last year. Both the number of residential alteration permits issued and the estimated value of residential alterations were above 1990 levels by 17.5 percent and 107 percent respectively. All things considered, the residential construction scene continues to be a bright spot in the local economy.
 

     Table 13 measures nonresidential construction in the metro area. This type of activity is a reflection of the confidence that firms have in the area as a place to do business. Each category of nonresidential construction shows a healthy amount of activity for the quarter.
 

     Financial statistics for Portage County are presented in Table 14. Bank deposits, a measure of local liquidity, rose by $8.7 million or 2.8 percent. Moreover lending activity, boosted by local construction activity, shot upwards by $27.6 million or 12.0 percent. Thus, the data in Table 14 provides us with another perspective on how the local economy is performing during this recessionary period.