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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Stevens Point Area
2nd Quarter 1990

 
Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14
 

     The local economy appears more than ever to be slowing down. Results for second quarter 1990 reveal that the local economy is behaving much like the national economy. Locally, total employment for 1st quarter was unchanged from the previous year. Moreover, total employment for second quarter actually declined in Portage County from last year. Softness was also detected in the industrial sectors, with most classifications reporting declines in employment. Other data presented in the second quarter report indicate that the economy will continue to be sluggish for at least the next several months. Close attention must be paid to national macroeconomic events, as their influence on the local situation will surely decide the course of the local economy for the remainder of the year. However, as mentioned in previous reports, local factors and endowments will play the major role in the continued long run viability of our area, e.g. water, land, labor force, central location, etc.
 

     Table 7 presents Portage County employment by major industrial sector. Manufacturing, services, and construction employment levels were lower than a year ago. Only trade posted a scant gain of 1.6 percent. The reported gain in government employment is a statistical aberration and can be explained by the exclusion of teachers in the 1989 June employment count. Given the long term historic trend it is estimated that government employment is actually at about the same level as last year. Thus, nonfarm employment most likely declined in the area by approximately 1200 positions.
 

     The CWERB merchant survey for Portage County is presented in Table 8. Local merchants believe that matters have improved. They reported that store traffic and sales were somewhat better than a year ago at the same time. Further, when asked about their future prospects, this group expects store traffic and sales to increase in the time period ahead.
 

     For the fourth consecutive quarter help wanted advertising has declined in the Stevens Point area, Table 9. Declines in help wanted advertising have also taken place at the national level. For June 1990, this barometer of future employment growth shrank by 13.5 percent for Portage County and 11 percent for the United States. This forecasting device suggests a continued slowdown in job creation in the months ahead. Sluggish employment data for the past several quarters at the local and national levels, appear to confirm index‑based forecasts.

 

     Local family financial distress is portrayed in Table 10 and Table 11. The data for second quarter 1990 indicate that new applications for public assistance claims were higher by 23.1 percent, rising from a monthly average of 104 to 128. In conjunction with this, the total caseload increased by .7 percent or an average of 11 cases per month. In contrast to this information, Table 11 shows that new unemployment claims on a weekly average basis have declined by 14.6 percent or 6 claims per week. Moreover, total unemployment claims have dropped from an average of 103 per week to 77, a decrease of 25.2 percent. The data in both Table 10 and 11 show considerable improvement over the values recorded several years before, a clear indicator that the economy has made great strides over the past few years.
 

     Residential construction, a leading economic indicator of overall future activity, continues to lag behind the marks established in prior years. In all reported categories construction activity fell behind the 1989 pace. The information presented in Table 12 includes a broad geographic area in order to capture activity in the neighboring townships and is thus a good barometer as to the health of the construction sector as well as the overall economy.
 

     Table 13 contains nonresidential construction information for the local area. The results for second quarter 1990 fall close to the historic norms for the various categories of activity. Percentage changes from year to year are not given due to the inherent volatility of nonresidential construction activity.
 

     The financial statistics for second quarter 1990 are presented in Table 14. The amount of bank deposits, a measure of local liquidity, reached a record high for second quarter rising from $287.5 to $311.2 million or a gain of 8.2 percent Bank lending, a measure of economic activity, reached an all‑time high regardless of the time of year. Lending reached $230.0 million, and increase of $14.1 million from last year. As stated in previous reports, the lending figure may be overstated somewhat due to inter-company transfers of assets.

 
TABLE 7:
PORTAGE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR
 
Employment
June 1989
Employment
June 1990
Percent
Change
Manufacturing
5,200
4,800

-7.7

Services
8,980
8,870
-1.2
Trade
6,200
6,300

+1.6

Construction
770

620

19.5
Government
4,400
5,300
+20.5
 
TABLE 8:
RETAILER CONFIDENCE IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA
                                        
Index Value
March 1990
June 1990
Total Sales Compared
to Previous Year
55
64
Store Traffic Compared
to Previous Year
53
59
Expected Sales Three
Months From Now
59
64
Expected Store Traffic
Three Months From Now
65
66
100 = Substantially Better
50 = Same
0 = Substantially Worse
 
TABLE 9:
HELP WANTED ADVERTISING IN PORTAGE COUNTY
                                
Index Value
1989
1990
Stevens Point
(June)
(1980 = 100)
296

256

U.S.
(May)
(1967 = 100)
154

137

 
TABLE 10:
PUBLIC ASSISTANCE CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1989
Second Quarter
(Monthly Avg.)
1990
Second Quarter
(Monthly Avg.)
Percent Change
New Applications
104

128

+23.1
Total Caseload

1,401

1,411

+0.7

*As of First Quarter 1986 Public Assistance Claims in Marshfield
are being compiled on a county-wide basis.
 
TABLE 11:
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS IN PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1989
Second Quarter
(Weekly Avg.)
1990
Second Quarter
(Weekly Avg.)
Percent Change
New Claims
41

35

-14.6
Total Claims
103

77

-25.2
 
TABLE 12:
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA*
 
1989
Second Quarter
1990
Second Quarter
Percent Change
Residential Permits Issued
71

63

-11.3
Estimated Value of
New Homes
$6,461.1
(thousands)

$4,589.9
(thousands)

-29.0
Number of Housing Units

121

89

-26.4
Residential Alteration
Permits Issued
285

228

-20.0
Estimated Value
of Alterations
$937.9
(thousands)

$683.9
(thousands)

-27.1
*Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover.
 
TABLE 13:
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN STEVENS POINT-PLOVER AREA*
 
1989
Second Quarter
1990
Second Quarter
Number of Permits Issued
17

11

Estimated Value of 
New Structures

$12,072.6
(thousands)

$2,050.5
(thousands)

Number of Business Alteration Permits

72

62

Estimated Value 
of Business Alterations

$974.0
(thousands)

$2,674.6
(thousands)

*Includes Stevens Point, Village of Plover, and the Towns of Hull, Stockton, Sharon, and Plover.
 
TABLE 14:
FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR PORTAGE COUNTY
 
1989
Second Quarter
(Millions)
1990
Second Quarter
(Millions)
Percent Change
Bank Deposits
$287.5

$311.2

+8.2
Bank Loans
215.9

$230.0

+6.5
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481