The pace of growth in the Stevens Point area slowed
somewhat during second quarter 1988. Statistics for the period indicate a
minimal amount of expansion. The following evidence supports this
assessment. First, while the unemployment rate fell sharply, the total
number of people working hardly increased, which coincides with a
contracting labor force. Second, nonfarm employment increased by only 190
positions or less than 1 percent for the year. However, not all indicators
were stuck in neutral. First, retailers indicate the activity was higher.
Second, manufacturing employment increased by nearly 8 percent. Third,
public assistance and unemployment claims were down. And fourth, bank
deposit and loan activity was above last year's levels.
The outlook for the future is, of course, to a large degree dependent on the
national economy. To the extent that it does well, so will the local
economy. Local indicators such as the business confidence index, retailer
confidence index and residential construction were positive. Furthermore,
the local economy should get a boost from the planned expansions at Woodward
Governor and the local paper industry. However, there is distress in the
area farm economy. In particular the vegetable growers and associated food
processors face a difficult period due to a host of economic and weather
related problems. Deterioration of this sector would significantly affect
the rest of the county's economy.
Table 7 presents employment information for
Portage
County's major industrial
classifications. Paralleling developments at the national and regional
level, manufacturing growth was the bright spot for the local scene.
Approximately 400 new jobs were created since last year. This is the highest
level ever recorded for the second quarter time period. Government
employment increased by 9.5 percent over 1987. In the categories of
services, trade, and construction, employment dipped from last year's
levels. In sum, total nonfarm employment grew by only 190 jobs or a scant
0.8 percent.
Table 8 displays the results of the CWERB's retailer survey. Retailers feel
that store sales were better than last year with store traffic being at
approximately the same level. Retailers are for the most part optimistic
about the future, but not to the extent of last year. As a matter of record,
measures relating to future activity are as low as have been recorded during
the second quarter.
The help wanted advertising index in Table 9 measures local labor demand.
The CWERB calculates that job advertising has contracted from a year ago by
approximately 5 percent. This index is used to estimate the likely rate of
growth' for
Portage
County
payrolls. Therefore, the information suggests that payrolls will expand at
approximately the same or a slightly lower rate than the year before.
Some good news is presented in Table 10 and
Table 11. These tables attempt to
measure local family financial distress. For public assistance new
applications and total caseload are down by significant percentages.
Likewise, total unemployment claims are substantially lower than the
previous year. Only one category, new unemployment claims, rose during the
second period of the year. These results coincide with a steady decline in
the unemployment rate.
Residential construction data is listed in Table 12. The number of permits
issued, estimated value of new construction, and the number of housing units
leaped above the 1987 totals. The construction scene in the greater
Stevens Point area continues to accelerate after four
years of solid second quarter performances. The only negatives in the second
quarter data were that the number of alteration permits issued and the value
of residential alterations were somewhat lower than last year.
Nonresidential construction for the second quarter in a row lagged behind
1987. As mentioned in previous reports, nonresidential construction
statistics can be greatly influenced by one or two projects. Thus the
reported values will exhibit a great degree of volatility.
Table 13
summarizes second quarter events.
The financial statistics for
Portage County are given in
Table 14. Bank
deposits expanded by nearly $20 million since last year. While bank loan
activity rose by nearly $31 million. The large increase in bank lending can
be linked to the expansion in the housing market.
