Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

Central Wisconsin
2nd Quarter 1986

Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6

 

      Economic activity in the region for the second quarter of 1986 was sluggish. In spite of the fact that lower interest rates, lower energy prices, and a falling dollar are all favorable variables to the Central Wisconsin economy, the performance was at best mixed.  Table 2 displays the data pertaining to unemployment in the area. Unemployment rose in Portage County by 5.4% and declined in Wood County by 2.9% during the second quarter of 1986. However, Marathon County demonstrated strength by posting a 12.5% lower unemployment rate than last year. Marathon matched and Wood outperformed the state's unemployment rate of 7.0%. The large improvement in Marathon County helps to explain the 5.3% decline in Central Wisconsin unemployment which stands at 7.1 %. Thus collectively the region approached the national and state levels.

     Total employment in Central Wisconsin followed the pattern of unemployment (see Table 3). Specifically, Portage County experienced a 2.8% decrease in employment compared to last year. Whereas Marathon and Wood experienced 1.6% and 1.5% increases. Moreover, the positive effects of increases in Marathon and Wood employment were sufficient to permit the region to post a modest gain of 0.4%. This small gain contrasts with the larger increases achieved state-wide (1.1 %) and nationally (1.7%) during the second quarter of 1986.

     When nonfarm sectoral employment for the region is examined in Table 4, slight increases or no changes are noted in employment in five out of seven categories. Since construction is a minor component of total employment, the sector with the largest increase was trade with a rate of 2.6% over a year ago. Manufacturing and its subcomponents experienced sluggish growth in employment, but continued the positive trend started in mid-1985 at an abated rate. The service sector performed worst with a 3.5% contraction. With regard to key industries in the region, both paper products and lumber and wood products avoided decreases in employment (Table 5). The industrial classifications of food processing and finance, insurance, and real estate improved over first quarter levels, but fell short in matching levels achieved during a similar period in 1985. For food processing, the lack of a positive change in employment is the first since mid-1985.

     Regional business executives are generally less optimistic about economic trends than they were in the first quarter of 1986 (Table 6). When asked about recent national changes in economic conditions and expected changes, responses were mildly positive. However, when compared to last quarter's responses less optimism was evident. The executive group felt more strongly than last quarter that recent local economic conditions were slightly better than expected. Local economic conditions in their industries, however, are expected to remain unchanged.

 
TABLE 2:
UNEMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Unemployment Rate
June 1986
Unemployment Rate
June 1985
Percent
Change
Portage
7.8%
7.4%
+5.4
Marathon
7.0%
8.0%
-12.5
Wood
6.6%
6.8%

-2.9

Central Wisconsin

7.1%

7.5%

-5.3

Wisconsin

7.0%

6.6%
+6.1
United States
7.1%
7.5%
-5.3
TABLE 3:
EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
 
Total Employment
June 1986
(Thousands)
Total Employment
June 1985
(Thousands)
Percent
Change
Portage
27.4
28.2
-2.8
Marathon

52.0

51.2

+1.6
Wood
32.9

32.4

+1.5
Central Wisconsin
112.3
111.8
+0.4
Wisconsin
2,259.1
2,234.9
+1.1
United States
109,673.0
107,819.0
+1.7
TABLE 4:
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR
 
Employment
June 1986 (Thousands)
Employment
June 1985 (Thousands)
Percent Change
Manufacturing
25.6
25.3
+1.2
Durable goods
10.8
10.8
0
Nondurable
goods
14.8
14.5
+2.1
Services
30.5

31.6

-3.5
Trade

23.4

22.8

+2.6
Construction

3.6

2.6

+38.5
Government
15.3
15.0
+2.0

TABLE 5:
EMPLOYMENT IN KEY CENTRAL WISCONSIN INDUSTRIES

Industry

Employment
June 1986
(Thousands)

Employment
June 1985
(Thousands)

Percent
Change

Paper Products

9.1

8.9

+2.2

Lumber and Wood
Products

4.2

3.9

+7.7

Food Processing

3.7

3.7

0

Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate

7.0

7.6

-7.9

TABLE 6:
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
                               
Index Value
June 1986
March 1986
Recent Change in
National Economic Conditions
64
69
Recent Change in
Local Economic Conditions
61
57
Expected Change in
National Economic Conditions
58

70

Expected Change in
Local Economic Conditions
57
63
Expected Change in
Industry Conditions

56

65
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
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