Two consecutive quarters of strong growth have moved the Central Wisconsin expansion into the mature stage. This means that growth has filtered into all major sectors of the regional economy. Once this stage is attained, the coming of a new recession creeps into the back of people's minds. There is some spotty and inconclusive evidence of an impending slowdown in the not-to-distant future. The decline in executive expectations, the rise in unemployment claims and the failure of bank deposits to rise are the most prominent signs.

     These signals remain faint and suggest that future improvement will become more difficult rather than indicating that a recession is right around the corner. Indeed, the third quarter report will almost certainly show employment gains and a further drop in the unemployment rate. These improvements will be fueled by seasonal factors, government employment and a continuation of nonresidential construction activity. It is the quarters beyond which remain highly uncertain.