Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
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Division of Business and Economics
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Stevens Point, WI 54481
(715) 346-3774  (715) 346-2537
 
 
Randy F. Cray, Ph.D.
 
Director, Central Wisconsin Economic Research Bureau
 

National and Regional Outlook
1st Quarter 1993

 Table 1

     The national economy experienced somewhat of a setback in first quarter 1993. Real GDP growth tumbled during the first three months of the year. An increase of only 1.8 percent was recorded for this period compared to a 4.7 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 1992. Economists point out that this slowdown was broad based across most sectors of the economy, with the primary cause being identified as a slowing in consumer purchases. The severe weather during the period along with smaller tax refund checks undoubtedly played an major role in influencing consumer behavior. The latter resulted from President Bush's plan to stimulate the economy in 1992 by reducing the amount withheld from paychecks on income earned in 1992. Also, economic weakness on the part of our trading partners has hurt export activity, which over the past few years has accounted for a large portion of the country's economic growth. The consensus among economists is that unless some unforeseen economic or political disruption occurs, the economy should continue to plod on at a less than spectacular rate.
 

     Wisconsin and the surrounding Midwestern area should continue to outperform the rest of the country. The trade weighted value of the dollar remains relatively low. This is important because even after the industrial restructuring of the 1980's, the Midwest is still highly dependent on capital goods production. With much of the world mired in economic slowdown, or at best showing signs of a tentative recovery, exports of the types of goods produced in the Midwest should not increase noticeably until the world economy turns around. Domestically, the need to rebuild the country's infrastructure, and low interest rates should bolster Wisconsin and midwestern production. Wisconsin's economy, in particular, should continue to outpace much of the nation for reasons previously mentioned, and because this area did not experience a speculative boom in construction activity in the 1980's, thus avoiding surpluses of residential and business space which became a severe drag on the economies in other sections of the country. As a result, Wisconsin's financial institutions have strong balance sheets and have been ranked near the top in terms of financial soundness. Moreover, the economic restructuring resulting from military spending reductions is a nonfactor. The Wisconsin and especially the Central Wisconsin economies have never been highly dependent on the defense industry. Other parts of the country such as California are suffering disproportionately because of this restructuring.

     In Central Wisconsin future economic prospects seem bright. In addition to the factors discussed earlier for Wisconsin in general, there is much to be optimistic about in Central Wisconsin in particular. The paper products industry appears to have turned the corner, as major paper companies in the region have reported a great improvement in profits for early 1993. Other developments in the region such as the $48 million Wausau Century Project planned for downtown Wausau constitute major investments in the Central Wisconsin region. Further, the development of a major manufacturer's mall in the Rib Mountain area, a new auto dealership, and a large strip mall are all examples of continuing growth in the area. In Marshfield the hospital‑clinic is slated for a $32 million expansion in its facilities. 

     In the Stevens Point/Plover area development continues to expand. Along the Highway 10 corridor the addition of major new retailers along with a new food store indicates the vitality of the overall area. Much growth has also taken place in Plover and more is anticipated. Plover continues to be one of the fastest growing municipalities in terms of population growth in the state. In the Wisconsin Rapids area the recently completed $500 million expansion at a major paper producer bodes well for area employment and income. Further, public investment in the form of new highways and bridges will transform the area in the years ahead. Highways 10, 29, and 54 are all slated to become major four‑lane highways within the next few years. This development will clearly serve to better link our region to the rest of Wisconsin and the nation. Additionally, in the Stevens Point/Plover area two additional bridges are being planned to span the Wisconsin River, again providing better access for the region. Given the above plus the overall economic climate in Wisconsin, a well‑educated work force, abundant clean water, a low crime rate, and a central location between the large markets of Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Chicago, and the Fox River Valley, the Central Wisconsin economy appears to be on a very solid foundation.

 
TABLE 1:
NATIONAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
 
1992
First Quarter
1993
First Quarter
Percent
Change
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (Billions)
$5,809.3
$6,261.6
+7.8
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billions of 1987 $)
$4,824.0
$5,078.2
+5.3
Industrial Production
(1987 = 100)
105.6

110.1

+4.3
Three Month U.S. Treasury Bill Rate
4.08%

2.96%

-27.5

Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 = 100)
139.3

143.6

+3.1
 
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University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Division of Business and Economics
Stevens Point, Wisconsin 54481