The local economy posted impressive results for first quarter 1991. The preliminary estimates show that the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged from a year ago. Further, total employment and nonfarm employment exceeded last year's levels. Nearly all indicators of economic activity were above last year's. However, increases were registered in the public assistance and unemployment claim data.

     The role of the national economy and its ability to influence the local area and region is without question. Further, the situation in the agricultural sector remains unclear. Data from the Chicago Federal Reserve bank indicate that farmers in general are in better financial shape than in previous years. However, segments of the agricultural sector such as the dairy industry may face a more difficult situation due to decreases in price supports. Thus, with these factors in mind, we should remain prudent and temper our enthusiasm about the local situation until these matters are resolved.

     All Portage County industrial sectors experienced employment growth from last year. Manufacturing, trade, and construction posted record levels of employment for this time of year (Table 7). Service payrolls, while not setting a record, still managed to register a nice gain of 1.9 percent. The large jump in government employment growth is suspect and is probably due to the inclusion of work study students in the employment numbers. With this in mind it appears that overall nonfarm employment grew by 1020 positions or 3.8 percent. This estimate of employment growth speaks well for the area economy given that the country is in the midst of a recession.

     Local merchants have indicated to the CWERB that sales and store traffic are at about the same levels as last year (Table 8). It should be noted that the U.S. was not in a recession at that time. In light of this fact, the no change readings are welcome news for the area. When this group was asked about their future prospects, they were hopeful that sales and store traffic would be greater three months from now when compared to last year. In general the local retailers displayed more optimism than last quarter. The ending of the Gulf War clearly played a role in the uplifting of spirits.

     Some more good news comes from the help wanted advertising index. Unlike the U.S. index which fell by 32 percent from last year, the local index increased by 39 percent (Table 9). This result clearly shows that the local labor market seems to be doing more than holding its own when it comes to job retention and generation. This index is a proxy for local labor conditions, thus an increase is a very positive development for the area.

     As can be expected, not all indicators point in the same direction since they are measuring different aspects of a very complex situation. Table 10 and
Table 11 gauge local family financial distress. Here it can be seen that new public assistance claims were up by 11 cases from last year while the total caseload fell by 63 or 4.3 percent. Table 11 shows that new unemployment claims rose by an average of 11 claims per week, or 19.3 percent. Likewise, the overall barometer of well‑being, total unemployment claims, rose by 20 cases per week or 16.7 percent. Thus not all results for first quarter are on the positive side indicating that some individuals are not faring as well as the community as a whole. Undoubtedly the announced layoffs at several local businesses have played a role in the determination of this quarter's results.

     While many other parts of the country are experiencing a real estate and construction slump, residential construction in the Portage County area was very brisk for first quarter 1991 (Table 12). Every category of activity was above last year's levels. The number of permits issued and the estimated value of new construction continued to increase in our local area. This type of activity bodes well for the area economy.
 

     More good news for the local economy comes from the nonresidential construction scene, Table 13. Almost every classification of activity was above last year's levels. Specifically, the estimated value of new structures, the number of business alteration permits, and the estimated value of alteration permits exceeded last year's totals.

     Table 14 shows the financial statistics for this quarter. Bank deposits grew at a rate of nearly 2.0 percent from last year to $316.2 million. The credit crunch affecting other parts of the country's economy does not seem to be in evidence here as loans jumped by 8.3 percent or nearly $20 million. This set of figures suggests that the economy was far from being stagnant in the first quarter.