The national economy is in a recession. Real GNP decreased by .06 percent over the past twelve months, Table 1. This is the second quarter in a row that output has fallen. Another measure of economic activity is the industrial production index published by the Federal Reserve. Here too, there is evidence that the national economy is in recession as production fell by over 3.3 percent from last year. In response to the downward trend in demand, the level of interest rates continues to decline. This is shown by the benchmark U.S. Treasury Bill rate which has dropped from 7.85 percent to 5.86 percent over the past twelve months. Inflation stubbornly refuses to go down holding at 6.2 percent for the year.

     Unemployment rates in the region have remained below those at the state and national levels. Marathon County experienced the largest increase in its unemployment rate. Historically the 6.0 percent rate for the Central Wisconsin region is quite low and remains consistent with the 6.0 percent full employment standard used by economists.

     Total employment in the region edged up by 500 positions. This is in contrast with declines in total employment registered in Wisconsin and the United States. Portage County led the expansion by posting a 2600 job increase, while Marathon and Wood Counties posted small declines in their payrolls.

     Nonfarm employment in the Central Wisconsin region also edged upwards by 1.3 percent. Two of the five major sectors declined from a year ago. The important category of manufacturing declined by 200 positions. In contrast service sector employment reached another milestone as there are now over 40.0 thousand people employed in this type of activity. Total nonfarm employment for all sectors reached almost 117.0 thousand.

     Key industries in the area continued to expand payrolls. The number employed in these categories grew from 26.5 to 26.9 thousand. Paper products and the financial sector did especially well by posting gains of 300 and 500 respectively.

     Business confidence rebounded sharply during first quarter 1991. Regional business leaders feel strongly that conditions are going to improve at all levels of disaggregation. They were especially upbeat about the prospects for a short and shallow national recession.

     There is little doubt that the Wood County economic situation is being affected by the national recession. However, matters are still relatively better than in many parts of the country and certainly better than during the last recession of the early 1980s. Marshfield in particular may be performing at a somewhat higher level than the rest of Wood County. This is due, in part, to its industrial makeup and reliance on activities that are not so prone to the ups and downs of the business cycle.