The Central Wisconsin regional economy continued to show growth in such important areas as manufacturing, trade, services, construction, and government. However, overall employment growth, which includes agriculture related activities, was virtually unchanged from a year ago. Thus, the historically low unemployment rates can be explained in part by a smaller labor force when compared to last year. In sum it appears that 1st quarter 1990 was one of improvement in select economic categories. This coincides with the national situation where the economy is not behaving in a clear and concise manner and is giving analysts mixed signals about its health.
 

     Unemployment rates in Central Wisconsin are once again on the decline,
Table 2. After rising for the past several quarters, the rates took a sharp nose dive in March. Generally speaking, the unemployment rates are at a decade low for the 1st quarter period. All three counties of Central Wisconsin participated in the downward movement. The weighted average for Central Wisconsin now stands at a very low 5.1 percent. Economists generally believe that full employment occurs when the rate drops to the 5.5 percent to 6.0 percent range.
 

     However, Table 3 shows that employment was virtually unchanged from a year ago in Central Wisconsin. Only Marathon County registered an increase in employment, Thus, much of the decline in the unemployment rate in Central Wisconsin can be attributed to a contracting labor force. Further, the employment picture at the state level shows that employment contracted by approximately 1.4 percent from a year ago. Thus, it appears that there was some sluggishness in the state economy as well as here in the central part of the state.

     Industrial employment in Table 4 depicts a somewhat different situation with all categories of employment registering increases. Service and manufacturing employment led the procession with gains of 1.7 and 1.2 thousand respectively. For these sectors, along with trade and construction, the employment totals represent all‑time highs for the 1st quarter of the year. Overall a gain of 4.7 percent was recorded for the combined sectors from a year ago. As a point of special interest, government employment as a percent of total nonfarm employment in Central Wisconsin has declined over the past five years from approximately 15.8 percent to 13.8 percent.
 

     Employment in key Central Wisconsin industries is presented in Table 5. Nearly all categories registered impressive growth from one year ago. Paper products and lumber and wood products registered gains of 5.4 percent and 8.5 percent respectively. Further, the employment levels obtained in these important activities reached all‑time highs for the first quarter. Finance, insurance, and real estate had a reported decrease of 9.9 percent. However it is unclear where a decline of this magnitude took place. Therefore, a revision in the near future is expected from state data collectors. The CWERB will monitor the situation to determine if the figures are correct.
 

     The business confidence index for Central Wisconsin shows that regional business executives believe the health of the national economy has deteriorated (Table 6). At the local level they express the opinion that economic matters have not changed for better or worse. When asked about the future, this group was uniformly more optimistic than three months ago. The greatest degree of optimism was expressed with regard to expected changes in their own particular industries.