Substantial revision of the regional employment numbers by the Department of Industry, Labor and Human Relations sharply reduced the level of Central Wisconsin economic activity below previous estimates. However, even when compared with the revised first quarter 1985 figures, the first three months of 1986 appear to have been very sluggish. Regional measures of unemployment, employment by sector, employment by key industry and the confidence of regional business executives can be found in Tables 2-6.

     Unemployment rates for Central Wisconsin counties were revised upward for 1985 and the March 1986 estimates remain high (Table 2). All three counties reported modest declines when compared to a year earlier, but the regional unemployment rate stands at an uncomfortable 9.3%. This puts the regional rate a full percentage point above the Wisconsin jobless rate and 1.8% higher than the nation. Part of Central Wisconsin's relatively high unemployment rate can be attributed to seasonal factors but a portion is also due to the region's recent weak economic performance.

     Further evidence of a sluggish economy can be found in regional employment statistics (Table 3). Total employment is a very small gain. In a reversal of earlier trends Portage County employment declined 1.5%. The number of Wood County jobs was also off, dropping 1.3%. The employment data contain evidence of a familiar pattern in Central Wisconsin. Marathon County, relatively sensitive to national conditions, is beginning to experience expanding payrolls after a year of declines. Wood and

     Portage Counties, which traditionally lag behind changes in the national economy, are now reflecting the economic softness experienced by the nation as a whole in 1985. Although this pattern is always influenced by unique local conditions, it has been fairly predictable.

     Central Wisconsin's major sectors demonstrated a highly uneven pattern during the first quarter (Table 4). Only the government and manufacturing sectors added jobs when compared to a year earlier. Manufacturers, continuing a trend which began in mid 1985, increased employment 3.4%. Government jobs rose 3.9%. The service sector is down 3.2%, while trade employment slipped 1.3%. These two sectors have accounted for much of the region's weak economic performance.

     Evidence from Central Wisconsin's key industries is generally more positive (Table 5). Only financial services, still affected by layoffs at Wausau Insurance Company, showed a decline. The lumber and food processing industries show solid gains while the paper industry reported a modest job increase over last March. The lumber and wood products industry will be a major beneficiary of declining long term interest rates.

     Regional business executives detected improving national conditions but only slight improvement in the local economic performance (Table 6). When asked to look ahead, business leaders are generally upbeat. The expected change index for both national and local conditions surged on the news of falling oil prices and interest rates.