Falling interest rates, smaller increases in the foreign trade deficit, and I.R.S. refund checks should combine to boost national economic growth in the second quarter. Along with spring weather, these factors should also spur growth in the Central Wisconsin economy in the months ahead. There are, however, factors which will moderate this growth. Problems in the region's important insurance industry and the after shock of plant closings in the Wausau area are likely to limit any employment gains in the second quarter. The Wausau area economy, in particular, will be hard pressed to expand job opportunities in the months immediately ahead. The outlook is brighter for the Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids areas. Planned expansions by major employers in both local economies should fuel growth.

The current business cycle has now reached the stage where the development of a recession can occur quickly. Experts have always had great difficulty in predicting when turning points in the cycle will occur. Although most economists do not see a recession developing in 1985, the emergence of an economic downturn becomes increasingly likely as the expansion ages. Back in the 1960s, President Johnson argued that recessions are not inevitable. Twenty years later, few are so bold.