The Stevens Point area is highlighted in the
second part of the report. Tables 7 - 13 paint a local economic picture
based on labor market conditions, demand for public assistance,
construction activity and financial institutions.
Employment gains by general sector for
Portage
County are revealed in
Table 7. In contrast to the fourth quarter 1983
report, manufacturing employment has jumped significantly. There are two
reasons for this gain. First, the Department of Industry, Labor and Human
Relations which gathers the data, moved to a new "bench mark" in January
1984. This procedure can cause jumps in the industry figures. Secondly,
there were genuine expansion-related gains in the first three months of
1984. These gains occurred primarily in the lumber, furniture and
non-electrical machinery industries and were large enough to more than
offset a decline in food processing employment.
Retail-wholesale trade employment figures continue to be discouraging.
Employment in this sector has been flat since December 1983 and has even
dropped 6% below the recession influenced reading of the previous March.
These employment figures were gathered in the middle of the month and do not
reflect job openings created by Plover's Factory Outlet Mall.
Table 8 shows further increases in the demand for
labor. Help wanted advertising in the first quarter of 1983 had sagged to
52"A. of the first quarter 1980 level. In the first quarter of this year the
volume of advertising stood at 73.8%. Even though this figure is
considerably better than last year's reading, it is down from the 86.9
recorded last December.
The demand for public assistance and unemployment compensation is down
markedly from the first quarter 1983 level. Claims for general relief at the
City of Stevens Point office dropped 52%, while
unemployment compensation claims plummeted 23.5%. These sizable drops also
represent significant improvement over the fourth quarter 1983 figures. The
details on public assistance and unemployment claims are contained in
Table 9 and Table 10
respectively.
Residential construction is another bright spot in the local economy.
Stevens Point-Plover area residential building permits, alteration permits,
and the estimated value of each are up significantly over year earlier
figures (Table 11). However, when compared to the
last three months of 1983, residential construction activity has been flat.
This result may be due to seasonal factors. On the other hand, the leveling
out of residential construction activity could reflect the impact of rising
mortgage rates and growing uncertainty about the use of adjustable rate
mortgages. Residential construction figures for the second quarter of 1984
will provide a more accurate indication of the impact of rising interest
rates.
Little discernible pattern can be found in the nonresidential construction
data (Table 12). Building permits are down in terms
of the estimated value of new starts, compared to the first quarter 1983
reading. However, the level of winter activity is so slight that it is
difficult to interpret quarterly changes. The key to the nonresidential
construction measure is the detection of major projects large enough to
generate employment multiplier effects throughout the local economy.
The level of financial activity recorded at the four largest commercial
banks in Portage County
shows impressive gains over year earlier figures. Bank deposits are up 9.8%,
while bank loan activity jumped a healthy 13.9% (Table
13). These gains are consistent with the employment and construction
statistics. Nevertheless, there is a possible warning sign in the bank data.
The amount of deposits fell slightly from the fourth quarter 1983 level of
$223.6 million. This drop could reflect seasonal factors or increased
competition from non-bank financial institutions. However, bank deposits
serve as a proxy for the local money supply. Economists have traditionally
used the money supply as a leading indicator of future economic conditions.
If a pattern of declining or stagnant deposits at Portage County banks is established, the local
economy is certain to sag. Such a pattern has not yet been established. Bank
deposit activity in the second quarter of 1984 will shed more light on this
issue.
