The Central Wisconsin region, consisting of Marathon, Portage and Wood counties, is examined in this section of the report. Tables 2 - 6 provide information on regional employ­ment and expectations.

     The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate for each county, Wisconsin and the nation can be seen in Table 2. There are two ways of interpreting these figures. On the positive side, the unemployment rate in all three counties is well below the recession-domi­nated levels recorded in March of 1983. However, these figures may also be interpreted negatively. The composite unemployment rate for the tri-county area remains an unsettling 10.3%. All three counties are registering rates well above the state and national levels. The still sizable magnitude of unemployment in the region suggests that the Central Wisconsin economy remains well below capacity.

     Employment gains over the past year are recorded in Table 3. Regional payrolls have expanded at a faster pace than in both the state and the country. Marathon and Wood counties have posted gains in excess of 8°A, in the past year. The magnitude of the 1981-83 recession in these two counties is demonstrated by the fact that their unemployment rates remain above 10% even after these considerable employment increases. The recession was less devastating in Portage County but employment gains in the past year have been a much more modest 3.9%.

     The region has added 7,600 jobs since March of 1983, 2,400 in the last quarter alone. Table 4 provides evidence on what sectors have created these new jobs. Not surprisingly, durable goods manufacturing industries have expanded employment by 19.8% over the past year. However, in contrast to the findings in the fourth quarter 1983 report, regional employment expansion appears broad based. All sectors with the exception of nondurable goods manufacturing have posted healthy gains. Weakness in the food processing industry has hindered this sector. The construction industry showed the largest percentage growth, shooting 40"A, above the March 1983 level. However, the number of jobs created in this relatively small sector was only 600.

     Turning to Central Wisconsin's major industries (Table 5), solid employment growth can be detected in lumber and wood products (+28.1%) and paper products (+13.6%). The lumber and wood products industry began expanding when the residential construction boom started in the spring of 1983 and has been a major force in the Central Wisconsin recovery. The jump in paper industry employment has occurred more recently. Payrolls rose by 900 during the first quarter.

      The other two key Central Wisconsin industries have not been job generators over the past year. Employment in the finance, insurance and real estate industry has expanded at a modest 1.3% pace. Food processing, slowed by the Bake-Rite closure, is down 5.7% from the March 1983 level.

     The business confidence index based on a survey of 27 executives of leading Central Wisconsin firms indicates that expectations remain positive (Table 6). There are several interesting changes from the December 1983 survey of the same business leaders. These executives have clearly recognized the recent strength displayed by the national economy even though the survey was conducted before GNP statistics for the first quarter were available. In response to the question: "How would you rate national economic conditions compared to six months ago?,” business leaders conclusively indicated that conditions had sharply improved. Summing up the responses and using the Research Bureau's scoring system, the question registered a very solid 87 (out of 100). The same question regarding local economic conditions also drew a positive response, though the overall score was less. The index for both questions shows significant improvement over the December responses.

    When queried about their expectations of national and local economic conditions six months hence, executives are looking for moderate improvement. However, business people were less enthusiastic about future economic gains than they were in the December poll. The anticipation of an economy growing at a slower pace mirrors the recent forecasts of most economists.

     An unexpected and encouraging result was obtained when executives were asked about future conditions (6 months ahead) in their respective industries. The index for this question shot up 15 points to a reading of 84. This level of confidence could translate into expanding payrolls at major Central Wisconsin firms. Employment gains at these "export" oriented businesses generate additional jobs in the services and trade sectors.