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The
Central Wisconsin economy has experienced a period of slow economic growth.
Unemployment and employment data along with the business confidence
survey suggest that we are being impacted by the national slow down in
activity. With Wisconsin being
relatively more dependent on manufacturing and energy importation than the
rest of the country as a whole, it comes as little surprise that our area
would feel the slowdown in activity.
Unemployment
rates in all reporting categories are significantly higher this year than
last
(Table
2). The seasonally unadjusted
unemployment rates for Portage, Marathon, and Wood counties were 5.3, 5.3, and
7.0 percent respectively. The
Central Wisconsin labor force weighted unemployment rate rose from 4.8 to 5.0
percent over the year. The state
and nation experienced similar gains to their unemployment rates.
Employment
gains presented in Table 3, were hard to come by in Central Wiscsonsin.
In fact, Portage and Marathon county employment is estimated to have
fallen by 1.4 and 1.0 percent respectively.
Surprisingly Wood county employment rose 1.9 percent.
Wood County, if you remember, had a large increase in its unemployment
rate. Therefore, the data
suggests that the main reason for the unemployment rate increase was a surge
in the number of people that were estimated to have entered the labor force. The state and nation managed to generate small gains in total
employment.
Industrial
sector employment is given in Table 4. Manufacturing,
construction, and government payrolls contracted in the three county area by
0.3, 1.9, and 5.0 percent from last year.
Thus, employment growth was hard to come by in these categories.
Better news comes from the services and trades sectors.
The number of jobs in these categories are estimated to have grown by
3.7 and 5.6 percent each.
County
sales tax distribution numbers are inaccurate for First Quarter 2000 and are
ignored in the report
(Table
5). The state
of Wisconsin was experiencing data processing problems last year. This problem was not confined to our area but encompassed the
entire sate sales tax distribution system.
As a result, only the First Quarter 2001 sales tax numbers are
presented. As time passes,
the problem of having comparable numbers will be resolved and accurate
comparisons can once again be made.
Industrial sector employment trends are given in
Figure 5A and Figure 5B. Service
employment has leaped upwards from about 44.0 thousand to approximately 54.0
thousand over the past four years. Manufacturing
payrolls have expanded from 33 thousand to about 35 thousand on a seasonally
adjusted basis. Trade has grown
more rapidly increasing from 32 thousand to around 35 thousand over the same
four-year period. Government
employment is only slightly changed over the period and likewise construction
is slightly higher.
The
Business Confidence Survey listed in Table 6 shows a dramatic decline in
regional business executives' assessment of economic conditions.
The marks of 29 and 31 for recent changes at the nation and local level
are the most pessimistic ever recorded by the CWERB.
This group of area business people was not at all pleased by recent
economic developments. With
regard to the future the marks in the low 50s suggest that this group does not
see the national, local, or the industry condition changing all that much over
the next three months. Given
their negative assessment of matters, this can be construed as a downbeat
forecast for the next quarter.
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